| January-February 2006
Foreign Policy | Arms Control | Defense | Diplomacy | Intelligence | Terrorism | United Nations |
Countries/Regions: Afghanistan | Africa |China | Iran | Iraq | Israel | Latin America | Middle East | Russia | Turkey |
A1 - Making Democracy Stick
Gerard Alexander
Policy Review, Dec 2005/Jan 2006., #134; pp45-58
"An ambitious strategy of democracy promotion is poised to
be a major pillar of US foreign policy for many years after 9/11,
just as Cold War containment, trade liberalization, and development
assistance were pillars of American policy in the decades after
1945. But if the strategy is to succeed, one need to ask and answer
some hard questions about what obstacles exist to achieving stable
democracies and how they can be overcome." The article discusses
issues related to the strategy of democratization as the foundation
of U.S. foreign policy as of December 2005 as well as the challenges
to the promotion of democracy worldwide. Gerard Alexander
is associate professor of politics at the University of Virginia
and author o/The Sources of Democratic Consolidation(Cornell University
Press, 2.002). Fulltext
A2 - What Is Democracy? Liberal Institutions and Stability
in Changing Societies
Hay, William Anthony
Orbis, Winter 2006, v50, #1, pp133-152
"Is it possible to export democracy? That question underlies
current U.S. foreign policy, and answering it requires an operational
definition of democracy that distinguishes its essential attributes
from circumstantial ones. Liberal representative government under
law, sustained by a political culture that accepts open disagreement
and demands accountability, provides the only form of democracy
that has sustained itself over time. Democracy typically emerges
from within a society, and history demonstrates the difficulty
of making democracy work. Imposing it externally presents further
challenges while risking a backlash. The project of spreading
democracy must therefore be separated from the objective of establishing
a stable order favoring American interests so that the latter
end can be achieved by more modest means." William Anthony
Hay is assistant professor of history at Mississippi State University
This article is based on a presentation he made to FPRI’s Study
Group on America and the West on September 12, 2005, in Philadelphia.
Fulltext
A3 - Witness For The Prosecution: International Organizations
And Arms Control Verification
Ifft, Edward
Arms Control Today, November 2005, vol35, #9, pp12-20
The need for greater attention to plugging unintended loopholes
in treaties, detecting and identifying violations, and assuring
appropriate consequences for clear and deliberate violations has
become painfully obvious. One need only look at the challenges
the international community faces in proving and dealing with
Iran's failure to comply with its safeguards requirements under
the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty or with North Korea's announced
decision to withdraw from the same accord. Here, Ifft explores
the role and responsibilities of international organizations in
implementing arms control verification and compliance to every
participating state-parties. Edward Ifft is a retired Department
of State official who served as deputy director of the On-Site
Inspection Agency and senior advisor to the Defense Threat Reduction
Agency. He is an adjunct professor in the security studies program
of the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.
Fulltext
A4 - Looking Back: Multilateral Arms Transfer Restraint:
The Limits Of Cooperation
Lewis, James A.
Arms Control Today, November 2005, v35,#9, pp45-48
As the US and Europe wrestle over European plans to sell conventional
arms to China, many Americans would like to see a new transatlantic
treaty regime. Lewis comments on why Americans disparage the Wassenaar
Arrangement, which coordinates export policies on conventional
arms and related industrial technologies. Among other things,
he says that European officials acknowledge the limitations of
the current arrangement, yet, it is unlikely that any replacement
or change to the Wassenaar Arrangement can provide meaningful
restraint in conventional arms transfers and still be acceptable
both to the US and Europe. James A. Lewis was a negotiator
in the P-5 Arms Transfer Restraint talks (1991-1993) and in crafting
the Wassenaar Arrangement (1993-1996).
Fulltext
A5 - Nuclear, Biological, Chemical, and Missile Proliferation.
Sanctions: Selected Current Law
Rennack, Dianne E.
Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service, CRS Report
for Congress, RL31502, updated October 21, 2005, 41p.
”This report offers a listing and description of legal provisions
that require or authorize the imposition of some form of economic
sanction against countries, companies, or persons who violate
U.S. nonproliferation norms. For each provision, information is
included on what triggers the imposition of sanctions, their duration,
what authority the President has to delay or abstain from imposing
sanctions, and what authority the President has to waive the imposition
of sanctions.” Dianne E. Rennack is Specialist in Foreign
Policy Legislation in the Foreign Affairs and National Defense
Division. Fulltext
A6 - Ringing In Proliferation: How to Dismantle an Atomic
Bomb Network
Montgomery, Alexander H.
International Security, Fall 2005, v30, # 2, pp.153-187
”The nuclear nonproliferation regime has come under attack from
proliferation determinists, who argue that resolute proliferants
connected by decentralized networks can be stopped only through
the use of aggressive export controls or regime change. Proliferation
pragmatists counter that nuclear aspirants are neither as resolved
nor as advanced as determinists claim. A technical review of recent
proliferators’ progress reveals that Iran, North Korea, and Libya
(before it renounced its nuclear program) have been unable to
significantly cut development times; the evidence that these regimes
are dead set on proliferating and cannot be persuaded to give
up their nuclear programs is not compelling. Because these states
lack tacit knowledge, the most effective way to dissolve the hub-and-spoke
or star-shaped structures of their nuclear and ballistic missile
networks is to target the hubs—that is, second-tier proliferators
such as Pakistan that have assisted these states with their nuclear
and missile programs. Past strategies aimed at dissuading proliferants
have been most successful when they combine diplomatic, social,
and economic benefits with credible threats and clear red lines.
The United States should therefore use these strategies instead
of regime change to target current and potential hub states to
halt further proliferation.” Alexander H. Montgomery is a
postdoctoral fellow at the Center for International Security and
Cooperation at Stanford University. Request
Article
A7 - The Urgent Need to Strengthen the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Regime
Goldschmidt, Pierre
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Policy Outlook,
#25, January 2006, 8p.
“Goldschmidt … calls for the United Nations Security Council to
adopt a generic and binding resolution that would automatically
authorize three steps if a state is found in non-compliance by
the IAEA. … Goldschmidt’s argument follows Iran’s announcement
that it will resume its nuclear research program and conduct experiments
with nuclear fuel. Goldschmidt makes the case it is waning political
will that hinders the IAEA. The fault, he warns, is an international
community that has failed to strengthen the authority of the IAEA
to exercise its improved capacity precisely when a state has been
found to be in non-compliance.” Pierre Goldschmidt is former
Deputy Director General of the IAEA and currently a visiting scholar
at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is based
in Brussels. Fulltext
A8 - Together with George Perkovich Pierre Goldschmidt
covers the same topic in the following press conference: Iranian
Nuclear Showdown (Transcript of Press Conference)
Goldschmidt, Pierre and George Perkovich
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, January 18, 2006,
26p.
”On January 18, 2006, the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace held an on-site and phone in press conference where nonproliferation
experts Pierre Goldschmidt and George Perkovich discussed the
next steps in the Iran nuclear story and options for the UN Security
Council, if Iran is reported.” Pierre Goldschmidt is former
Deputy Director General of the IAEA and currently a visiting scholar
at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is based
in Brussels. George Perkovich, vice president for studies at the
Carnegie Endowment, has written extensively on and traveled to
Iran. Fulltext
A9 - Defense Transformation and the 2005 Quadrennial
Defense Review
Henry, Ryan
Parameters; US Army War College Quarterly; Winter 2005-06,
v35, #4, pp5-15
“The article presents information on the U.S. Quadrennial Defense
Review (QDR) in 2005. The QDR is considered to be an engine of
continued military transformation. The history of defense transformations,
and the experience of previous QDRs, define a series of guiding
principles for maximizing the transformational value of the 2005
QDR. There is a need of structured competition of ideas in the
deliberations of the department. The experience of past QDRs suggests
that many important decisions will have to be made outside the
time frame of the formal QDR process. The process has to be as
transparent as possible. It should be insured that the services,
combatant commands, and the various components of the department
are engaged at each step in the QDR.” Christopher “Ryan” Henry
is Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in the
U.S. Department of Defense. Fulltext
A10 - Cost of U.S. Military Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan
Through Fiscal Year 2006 and Beyond
Kosiak, Steven
Center for Strategic and BudgetaryAssessments, January 6,
2005, 8p.
The author compares funding of U.S. military operations over the
years based on various official sources and discusses whether
funding for military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq were sufficient.
He considers two alternative troop deployment scenarios for the
coming years in those regions with resulting funding needs and
compares the costs with those of earlier military operations:
“… the financial burden posed by these ongoing military operations
[Iraq and Afghanistan] is substantially lower when measured as
a share of the economy -- since today’s economy is much larger
than that existing at the time of the Korean or Vietnam Wars.”
Steven Kosiak is Director of Budget Studies at the Center
for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington. Fulltext
A11 - Quadrennial Defense Review 2006. Report
U.S. Department of Defense February 6, 2006
The Pentagon is placing new emphasis on humanitarian work, post-conflict
stability and reconstruction missions, multicultural awareness
and collaboration with other nations, according to the Quadrennial
Defense Review released February 3. Recent global operations --
ranging from Iraq and Afghanistan to the responses to the December
2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the October 2005 South Asia earthquake
– have shown the importance of cooperation among different branches
of the U.S. government as well as with other nations. The Quadrennial
Defense Review, which describes the administration’s global military
goals, is mandated by Congress to be issued every four years.
Fulltext
diplomacy
A12 - 2005 Report of the Advisory Commission on Public
Diplomacy
United States Advisory Commission on Public Diplomacy. November
2005
The bipartisan Advisory Commission's 2005 report on U.S. government
international communications efforts examines the Commission's
recommendations issued in its previous report, and reviews the
level of implementation achieved to date. The Commission offers
its review in three sections: short-term communication, long-term
communication and international broadcasting. This report also
presents a vision for bringing public diplomacy into the 21st
century and offers thoughts on how public diplomacy practitioners
can take advantage of 21st century capabilities. The Commission
members emphasize that reforming public diplomacy will require
a long-term, sustained effort. Fulltext
A13 - Seeking Spies; Why the CIA is Having Such a Hard
Time Keeping Its Best
Robinson, Linda; Whitelaw, Kevin
U.S. News & World Report, February 13, 2006, v140, #5,
pp35-41
"Three top-drawer commissions, ranking members of both parties
in Congress, and President Bush all agreed that Washington needed
to dramatically improve and expand its human intelligence-gathering
abilities--in layman's terms, putting more spies on the ground.
But more than four years after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001,
the Central Intelligence Agency, current and former intelligence
officials say, is nowhere near to achieving that goal. After bearing
the brunt of the criticism for the intelligence failures on 9/11
and for blowing the analysis on Iraq's supposed weapons of mass
destruction, the agency has been buffeted further by more recent
allegations of torture and mishandling of detainees under its
control." Fulltext
A14 - How Does the NSA Spy?
Harris, Shane
National Journal, January 21, 2006, v38, # 3, pp47-50
“The furor over the National Security Agency's domestic eavesdropping,
authorized by President Bush, has focused largely on legal questions-whether
the NSA has the authority to spy on Americans inside the United
States and whether the commander-in-chief can order the agency
to do so. But that debate has largely smothered examination of
how the nation's largest intelligence agency is collecting-and
analyzing-information intercepted from hundreds, possibly thousands,
of Americans. Since the 9/11 attacks, the NSA has abandoned the
mantra that guided it in earlier decades-Do not spy on Americans
inside the nation's borders. Things have changed, and the NSA
may be on the cusp of employing state-of-the-art technologies
to uncover more information about potential terrorists, and about
Americans here at home.” Fulltext
A15 - The New Children of Terror: The Making of a Terrorist:
Recruitment, Training, and Root Causes
Peter W. Singer,
Brooking Institution, December 2005, online edition
"The New Children of Terror" is a chapter in The Making
of a Terrorist, James Forest, ed. (Praeger, 2005)"Terrorism,
it is said, is the "weapon of the weak." But while our
conception of warfare is often an assumption of men in uniform
fighting for the political cause of their nation–states, it is
a misnomer. The reality of contemporary conflict is that increasingly
it has pulled in the "weak" of society, most specifically
children, both as targets and participants. Although there is
global consensus (based on moral grounds) against sending children
into battle, this terrible practice is now a regular facet of
contemporary wars. There are some 300,000 children (both boys
and girls) under the age of 18 presently serving as combatants,
fighting in almost 75 percent of the world's conflicts; 80 percent
of these conflicts where children are present include fighters
under the age of fifteen..." Peter W. Singer, Senior
Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies. Fulltext
A16 - Terrorist Innovations and Anti-Terrorist Policies
Faria,Joa˜o Ricardo
Terrorism & Political Violence, vol.18, #1, January 2006,
pp.47-57
"Defensive policies create obstacles for terrorist action
aimed at reducing the probability of success of terrorist attacks
and include the creation of technology-based barriers, instituting
of stricter laws and penalties, and hardening of targets. Proactive
policies aim at preventing attacks by disabling terrorists and
include group infiltration, preemptive strikes, and retaliatory
raids or invasion of state sponsors. As any terrorist organization
has objectives that they try to achieve using limited resources,
one can think of anti-terrorist policies by examining how they
affect the objectives and constraints of terrorist organizations.
This paper examines a dynamic model of terrorist attacks and innovations."
This paper argues that intelligence is the most effective anti-terrorist
policy and deterrence is the least effective. However, conclusion
may change when one considers the possible positive effects of
intelligence on terrorist innovations or when intelligence is
gathered to be used for preemption and deterrence."
Joa˜o Ricardo Faria, Department of Economics and Finance, University
ofTexas Pan American, Edinburg, TX, USA. Request
Article
A17 - National Military Strategic Plan for the War on
Terrorism
Department of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
February 1, 2006, 40p
This document outlines the Department’s strategic planning and
provides strategic guidance for military activities and operations
in the GWOT. The document guides the planning and actions of the
Combatant Commands, the Military Departments, Combat Support Agencies
and Field Support Activities of the United States to protect and
defend the homeland, attack terrorists and their capacity to operate
effectively at home and abroad, and support mainstream efforts
to reject violent extremism." Fulltext
A18 - United They Fall
Khanna, Parag
Harper’s Magazine, January 2006, vol. 312, #1868, pp31–40
”The article discusses the author's views on the importance of
the role of former U.S. President Bill Clinton in saving future
of the United Nations. He comments on the lack of outstanding
candidate to lead the organization following the retirement of
Secretary-General Kofi Annan in 2006. He argues that the expertise
of Clinton in diplomacy would be important to enhancing the utility
and image of the organization.” Parag Khanna is a senior research
analyst at the Brookings Institution, where he manages the Global
Governance Initiative of the World Economic Forum. Fulltext
A19 - The UN’s Desire to Control the Internet
DuBord, Steven J.
The New American, December 12, 2005, pp.12+
"Dubord discusses the UN's desire to take the helm of Internet
supervision from US hands. He comments that it is through sheer
anti-American bias that the nations of the world, via the UN,
want to steal control of technology the US has developed. He says
that the the US must guard against any plan that compromises with
the UN in even the slightest way." Fulltext
Countries/Regions:
A20 - Stabilization and Reconstruction in Afghanistan:Are
PRTS A Model or a Muddle?
Mcnerney, Michael J.
Parameters, Winter 2005, Vol. 35, #4, pp32-46
The author reviews in this article the effectiveness of "Provincial
Reconstruction Teams" (PRTs) in Afghanistan and concludes
that PRTs have made significant gains in the past several years,
but due to their nature and the insecure environment in which
they operate means that there will always be "a little confusion"
over their role. Mr. Mcnerney believes that to be preferable to
rigid guidelines that might eliminate the flexibility that makes
the PRTs so adaptable. Although the PRTs are "generally on
the right track," he believes that certain improvements are
in order -- there need to be more of them; civil-military coordination
needs to be improved, and better methods are needed to measure
the effectiveness of relationship-building efforts. In spite of
their imperfections, he believes that PRTs may provide a good
starting point for developing the tools needed to achieve political
and military success in future missions. Michael J. McNerney
is Director of International Policy and Capabilities in the Office
of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Stability Operations.
Fulltext
A21 - The United States and Africa: Shifting Geopolitics
in an "Age of Terror"
Kraxberger, Brennan M.
Africa Today; Fall2005, Vol. 52, #1, pp47-68
"Africa is a region of renewed interest for American foreign-policy
elites, both in and out of government. The purpose of this paper
is twofold: to explore American foreign-policy elites' assessments
of Africa before and after 11 September 2001, and to analyze how
these assessments have been translated into American foreign policy
toward Africa. The analysis is based on a review of government,
think-tank, and other publications and transcripts associated
with American foreign-policy elites, including the journal Foreign
Affairs. Special focus is given to the strategic ranking and assessment
of foreign countries within a global geopolitical code, or mental
map of priority areas for U. S. military, economic, and diplomatic
resources and engagement. American foreign-policy elites' assessments
of Africa have shifted substantially since the 1990s, when the
continent was largely regarded as quite marginal to American interests."
Brennan M. Kraxberger is assistant professor of Geography
at Central Michigan University. Fulltext
A22 - Democracy Agenda May Revive U.S. Interest in Hong
Kong
Gill, Bates, Huang, Chin-Hao
Hong Kong Journal, 01/01/2006, online edition
"The United States should take a more consistent interest
in Hong Kong affairs and use its influence to promote the evolution
of universal suffrage in the territory, argue Bates Gill and Chin-hao
Huang of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in
Washington, DC. But the fate of democratic politics in Hong Kong
depend above all on policies of Beijing, and what China chooses
to do will say much about its future role in global affairs."
Bates Gill holds the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington,
D.C., Chin-hao Huang is a Researcher with the Freeman Chair in
China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
(CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Fulltext
A23 - China - U.S. Relations: Current Issues and Implications
for U.S. Policy
Dumbaugh, Kerry
Congressional Research Service, December 20, 2005,
A growing concern for U.S. policymakers is China's growing global
"reach" and the consequences that China's increasing
international economic and political influence will have for U.S.
interests. To feed its voracious appetite for resources, China
is steadily and successfully seeking trade agreements, oil and
gas contracts, scientific and technological cooperation, and even
multilateral security arrangements with countries in Asia, Europe,
the Middle East, Central Asia, Africa, and Latin America, and
with Canada. Some of China's growing relationships are with key
U.S. allies. Even if these trends are the benign consequences
of China's economic development and growth, they may pose critical
future challenges for U.S. economic and political interests. At
the same time, these trends appear to have prompted Japan to seek
closer U.S. relations as a counterweight to China's growing regional
power. Fulltext
A24 - Iran and America: Is Rapprochement Finally Possible?
Katz, Mark N
Middle East Policy Journal, Winter 2005, v12, #4
"This article summarizes their views on a range of topics,
including the Bush administration (they supported U.S. intervention
in Afghanistan and Iraq), democratic revolutions (many fear such
an upheaval in Iran), and the nuclear issue (they see the United
States as unfair). Many supported a visit by the Secretary of
State, along the lines of Nixon's visit to China, and several
thought that increased academic and cultural exchanges would improve
relations. Even after the recent "reprehensible" statements
by President Ahmadinejad, Katz remains convinced that Washington
and Tehran face the common threat of Sunni fundamentalism, an
important incentive for Iranian-American cooperation. However,
Katz does not believe that mutual recognition by both Washington
and Tehran of the need for Iranian-American rapprochement is imminent;
during the Cold War, it took several years for Washington and
Beijing to recognize that it was possible for them to cooperate
against the Soviet threat. He believes that the current face-off
with Tehran "may have to get worse before America and Iran
recognize ... the necessity for rapprochement." Mark
N. Katz is a professor of government and politics at George Mason
University. Fulltext
A25 - Next Steps: The Iranian Threat
Keynote Addresses by Senator Sam Brownback and Acting Assistant
Secretary Stephen G. Rademaker
American Enterprise Institute, February 2006, online edition
"The Iranian regime has made clear it is uninterested in
ending its nuclear program. In addition, Iran’s new president,
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has reversed the minimal political and economic
reforms of recent years. In less than six months as president,
Ahmadinejad has chosen a cabinet of hard-liners, outlawed Western
music, inaugurated a new campaign of anti-Semitism, and violated
Iran’s agreement on uranium enrichment with the EU-3. He has openly
threatened the United States and its Western partners. In short,
he has made obvious that the Iranian regime is a threat to the
United States and its allies in Europe and the Middle East. The
regime has demonstrated its intent to develop nuclear weapons.
Members of Congress and the Bush administration have said that
the time for negotiation with Iran is over. Can the Iranian nuclear
threat be contained? Will Iran continue to sponsor terror with
impunity? And will any solution to the nuclear nightmare require
ignoring the regime’s repression at home? On February 2, the day
before the International Atomic Energy Agency met to refer Iran
to the United Nations Security Council, AEI hosted a panel discussion
to address these and other issues" Fulltext
A26 - Iran Means What it Says
Rubin, Michael
American Enterprise Institute, January 2006, online edition,
5p.
"U.S. and European diplomats need to take seriously the rhetoric
used by Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad regarding nuclear
programs and the destruction of Israel. Tehran has proven itself
to be an insincere diplomatic partner. Engagement has backfired.
Instead of continuing failed diplomatic efforts, world leaders
should work together to help the Iranian people create a truly
representative government." Michael Rubin is a resident
scholar at AEI. This article is derived from recent articles by
Michael Rubin that appeared in Ty´az˘den˘ (Bratislava), the Wall
Street Journal, and his recently released book, Eternal Iran:
Continuity and Chaos (Palgrave Macmillan, 2005), coauthored by
Patrick Clawson. Fulltext
A27 - A Month After the Parliamentary Elections: Measuring
Iraqi Public
Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brooking Institution,
January 31, 2006, 46p
"Over a month has passed since millions of Iraqis cast their
ballots in their country's historic parliamentary elections. These
elections witnessed substantial participation from each of Iraq's
diverse communities and saw a lower level of violence than during
the two previous votes in 2005. The United States and Coalition
forces have hailed the elections as an important indicator of
political progress. At the same time, violence continues and it
has taken over a month to finalize the election results. Moreover,
there are vital aspects of public opinion that are not captured
by the elections, such as how Iraqis feel about the elections,
and whether they want U.S. and other forces to leave–if so under
what conditions, and in what time frame. Similarly, how do Iraqis
feel about the insurgency–and do views on all of these issues
differ across Iraq's major communities of Kurds, Shi'a Arabs and
Sunni Arabs?" To examine these questions, the Saban Center
for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution has invited
a group of leading experts to discuss the results of an in-depth
poll of Iraqi public opinion undertaken by the Program on International
Policy Attitudes (PIPA). The survey is presented by Steven
Kull, director of PIPA and editor,WorldPublicOpinion.org, Commetary
on the survey are provided by Kenneth Pollack, director of research,
Saban Center for Middle East Policy. Fulltext
A28 - Women, Islam, and the New Iraq
Coleman, Isobel
Foreign Affairs, January/February 2006, v85, #1, pp24-38
"Although questions of implementation remain, the new Iraqi
constitution makes Islam the law of the land. This need not mean
trouble for Iraq's women, however. Sharia is open to a wide range
of interpretations, some quite egalitarian. If Washington still
hopes for a liberal order in Iraq, it should start working with
progressive Muslim scholars to advance women's rights through
religious channels." Isobel Coleman is a Senior Fellow
and Director of the Women and U.S. Foreign Policy Program at the
Council on Foreign Relations. Fulltext
A29 - Facts vs. Fiction: A Report from the Front in Iraq
Zinsmeister, Karl
The American Enterprise, March 2006, pp21-27
Editor Karl Zinsmeister, just returned from his fourth extended
tour in the last two and a half years in Iraq, answers some common
queries about how the war is faring. During November and December,
he joined "numerous American combat operations, including
the largest air assault since the beginning of the war, walked
miles of streets and roads, entered scores of homes, listened
to hundreds of Iraqis, observed voting at a dozen different polling
sites, and endured (his) third roadside ambush." Karl
Zinsmeister is editor in chief of The American Enterprise (TAE).
Fulltext
A30 - If America Left Iraq
Rosen, Nir
Atlantic Monthly, December 2005, v296, pp42-46
"This article focuses on key issues surrounding the prospect
of an imminent withdrawal of the American troops from Iraq. The
author, who has spent a lot of time in Iraq reporting on the occupation,
argues that a growing majority of Iraqis would like the American
occupation to end sooner rather than later. He chronicles the
daily annoyances of the occupation, such as enduring constant
searches and arrests. Sunni and Shiite groups alike have called
for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. The argument for
keeping U.S. troops in Iraq has always been that a civil war would
break out without the presence of American troops; however, Rosen
writes that a civil war is already under way because of the U.S.
presence. The occupation fuels Sunni hostility toward Shiites
who work with the coalition; Sunni politicians are also currently
branded as traitors if they take part in the political process.
The author writes that all of the Sunni fighters he spoke to told
him that they were fighting for revenge for the destruction and
humiliation that are a result of any occupation. Nir Rosen,
fellow at the New America foundation, spent sixteen months reporting
from Iraq after the American invasion. His book In the Belly of
the Green Bird: The Triumph of the Martyrs in Iraq will be published
in February. Fulltext
A31 - Sharon and Israel’s Future
Sicherman, Harvey
Foreign Policy Research Institute, E-Notes, January 19, 2006,
online edition
"The stroke that felled Prime Minister Ariel Sharon on January
4, 2006, deprived Israel of its dominant political leader on the
eve of critical elections. For President Bush, the loss of Sharon
is compounded by the growing chaos among the Palestinians, themselves
about to vote on a new legislative council. Nonetheless, for Israel
at least, future policies are likely to reflect what Sharon himself,
and Rabin before him, had articulated—namely, that the safety
of the Jewish State requires a territorial division of the Land
of Israel." Harvey Sicherman, Ph.D., is President of
the Foreign Policy Research Institute and a former aide to three
U.S. secretaries of state. Fulltext
A32 - Is Washington losing Latin America
Hakin, Peter
Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb. 2006, v85, #1, pp39-46
"This article focuses on relations between the United States
and Latin America. Relations between the two today are at their
lowest point since the Cold War. Many had hoped that Latin America's
turn towards democracy and the U.S. waning emphasis on security
matters would lead to closer and more cooperative ties. For a
time, this seemed to be the case. Central America's wars were
largely settled, the Brady debt-relief proposal helped end Latin
America's decade-long recession, and the U.S., Canada, and Mexico
signed NAFTA. After Sept. 11, 2001, the U.S. effectively lost
interest in Latin America. Throughout the region, support for
U.S. policies has diminished. The U.S. is not the only culprit.
Latin American leaders have performed badly, only partially completing
political and economic reforms." Peter Hakim is President
of the Inter-American Dialogue. Fulltext
A33 - Can Hamas Be Tamed
Herzog, Michael
Foreign Affairs, March-April 2006, vol.85, #2, online edition
"Optimists argue that Hamas' participation in mainstream
Palestinian politics will spur the group to moderate its radical
goals and terrorist tactics. But history shows that political
participation co-opts militants only under very specific conditions
-- and almost none of those exist in the Palestinian Authority
today." Michael Herzog is a Brigadier General in the
Israel Defense Forces and a Visiting Fellow at the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy. He was formerly the senior military
aide to Israel's Minister of Defense and the head of strategic
planning for the IDF. Fulltext
A34 - The Forgotten West Bank
Gavrilis, George
Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb. 2006, vol85,#1, pp.66-76
"The relative ease of the Gaza withdrawal has fooled many
observers into thinking that the Palestinian Authority can now
concentrate on consolidating its hold over the territory. Washington
and its allies are pushing hard for the PA to do so. But everyone
is ignoring the West Bank, where chaos is quickly mounting. If
wide-scale violence erupts there, it could quickly bury the entire
peace process." George Gavrilis is Assistant Professor
of Government at the University of Texas at Austin. Fulltext
A35 - Congress Should Withhold Funds from the UN Relief
and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), WebMemo
#987
Nile Gardiner, Phillips, James
Heritage Foundation, February 6, 2006
"Until it can be absolutely verified that UNRWA is being
run in an effective, neutral, and accountable manner and that
it will not be used by the new Hamas regime to pursue terrorism
or spread anti-Semitism, the United States should withhold funds
from the organization." Nile Gardiner, Ph.D., is the
Bernard and Barbara Lomas Fellow in the Margaret Thatcher Center
for Freedom, and James Phillips is Research Fellow in Middle Eastern
Affairs in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy
Studies in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International
Studies, at The Heritage Foundation. Fulltext
A36 - Willing to Compromise: Palestinian Public Opinion
and the Peace Process
United States Institute of Peace, Special Report 158, January
2006, online edition
" In this report, Khalil Shikaki analyzes survey data gathered
from dozens of polls conducted over the past decade and identifies
long-term trends in Palestinian public opinion and related policy
implications. Shikaki’s study is essential reading for policy
planners on all sides." Khalil Shikaki is one of the
foremost authorities on Palestinian public opinion and Palestinian
national politics. The director of the Palestinian Center for
Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah. Fulltext
A37 - The Middle East Peace Talks
Migdalovitz, Carol
Congressional Research Service, January 13, 2006, 19p
"Congress is interested in the peace talks because of its
oversight role in the conduct of U.S. foreign policy, its support
for Israel, and keen constituent interest. It is concerned about
U.S. financial and other commitments and the Palestinians’ fulfillment
of their commitments to Israel. Congress has appropriated aid
for the West Bank and Gaza, with conditions intended to ensure
Palestinian compliance with agreements with Israel. Congress has
repeatedly endorsed Jerusalem as the undivided capital of Israel,
and many Members seek sanctions on the PLO and PA." Carol
Migdalovitz is a specialist at Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade
Division of Congressional Research Service. Fulltext
A38 - U.S. Aid to the Palestinians
Sharp, Jeremy M.
Congressional Research Service, February 2, 2006, 6p
"With the recent success of Hamas at the polls, many observers
have cautioned that continued foreign assistance to the Palestinian
Authority (PA) may be at risk due to Hamas’ commitment to the
destruction of the state of Israel and its designation as a terrorist
group by the United States. Currently, the Palestinians are the
largest per capita recipients of foreign aid worldwide and, with
a shattered economy, are completely dependent on external support
to meet basic needs. Without Western aid, a Hamas-led government
may be forced to rely completely on donations from wealthy Arab
Gulf states or from Iran. On the other hand, the prospect of losing
U.S. and European aid may force Hamas to tone down its radical
views and accept Israel’s right to exist. In the meantime, foreign
donors have been cautious, demanding that Hamas renounce the use
of violence and recognize Israel while withholding a complete
cessation of aid programs pending the formation of a new Palestinian
government. This report will be updated as events warrant."
Jeremy M. Sharp works as a Middle East Policy Analyst at the
Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division of the Congressional
Research Service. Fulltext
A39 - Failing the Stalin Test
Mendelson, Sarah E.; Gerber, Theodore P.
Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb2006, v85, #1, pp2-8
"Since 2003, three surveys have been conducted in Russia,
and according to these polls, there is no stigma associated with
Stalin in the country today. In fact, many Russians hold ambivalent
or even positive views of him. A majority of young Russians, moreover,
do not view Stalin - a man responsible for millions of deaths
and enormous suffering - with the revulsion he deserves. Although
Stalinism per se is not rampant in Russia today, misperceptions
about the Stalin era are. Few of the respondents to the surveys
could be classified as hard-core Stalinists, but fewer still are
hard-core anti-Stalinists. Most Russians, in other words, flunk
the Stalin test. And yet, whereas similar findings about Hitler
in Germany would no doubt provoke international alarm, American
and European political leaders have failed to respond to this
trend in Russia - and it is doubtful that they will anytime soon.
Such willful blindness is dangerous." Sarah H.Mendelson,
Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Center for Strategic
and International Studies. Theodore P. Gerber, Professor of Sociology,
University of Wisconsin, Madison. Fulltext
A40 - Russia: Authoritarianism Without Authority
Stoner-Weiss, Kathryn
Journal of Democracy, January 2006, v17, #1, pp104-119
"February 2006 marks the first anniversary of Russia's clear
turn away from democracy. The key event was the enactment, in
early 2005, of a law abolishing the popular election of governors
in Russia's 89 provinces. Even if Russia completely abandons democracy,
the demise of the highly centralized Soviet state is a reminder
that authoritarianism is not necessarily a more reliable way in
which to ensure adherence to central state authority. Regardless
of the amount of financial aid that Russia receives from international
organizations, the quality of its public policies, the fiscal
and political threats issued by the president, or even the extent
of electoral rights at the provincial level, if the central state
lacks sufficient infrastructural power, then positive change will
come slowly to the lives of ordinary Russians outside Moscow.
Here, the author assesses the nature of contemporary Russian state."
Kathryn Stoner-Weiss is associate director of research and
senior research scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development,
and the Rule of Law at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute
for International Studies. Fulltext
A41 - The Hunt for Russia's Riches
Aslund, Anders
Foreign Policy, Jan/Feb 2006, #152, pp43-48
"Clamping down on oligarchs has been at the top of Vladimir
Putin's to-do list. But his authoritarian agenda is holding Russia
back. As much as Putin may resent the country's wealthy elite,
Russia needs them to survive."
Anders Aslund is senior associate and director of the Russian
and Eurasian Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace. Fulltext
A42 - The Turkish Military's March Toward Europe
Aydinli, Ersel; Özcan, Nihat Ali ; Akyaz,Dogan
Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb 2006, v85, #1, pp77-90
"Without the Turkish military's support, Ankara cannot comply
with the reforms necessary for Turkey to join the EU. So far,
the top brass have cooperated, even when reforms have curbed their
power, because they have looked at EU membership as both the culmination
of the country's modernization and a way to battle nagging domestic
problems. But how much further will they go?"
Ersel Aydinki is a Visiting Assistant Professor at George
Washington University, on leave from Bilkent University, in Ankara.
He worked on this article while on a fellowship at Harvard University's
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Nihat Ali
Özcan is a retired Major from the Turkish armed forces. Dogan
Akyaz is a Major in the Turkish armed forces. Fulltext
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