Posted February 5, 2007.
Foreign Policy | Arms Control | Diplomacy | Intelligence | Terrorism | United Nations
Countries/Regions: Afghanistan | Africa | Iran | Iraq |Latin America | Middle East | North Korea | Russia
A1 - Neo-Conservatives, Liberal Hawks, and the War on
Terror: Lessons from the Cold War
Lieven, Anatol ; Hulsman, John C.
World Policy Journal, Fall 2006, v23, #3, pp64-75
"At a deeper, less evident level, the Cold War was also bound
to have a profound impact on how America waged the War on Terror
simply because the military, intelligence, bureaucratic, academic,
ideological, and military-industrial institutions that have shaped
U.S. strategy since 9/11 were created by the Cold War." Anatol
Lieven is a senior research fellow at the New America Foundation
covering American strategy and international relations. John C.
Hulsman is the van Oppenheimer scholar in residence at the German
Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin and a contributing editor
to The National Interest. Fulltext
A2 - Dialogues with Adversaries
Bradish, Christopher; Specter, Arlen
Washington Quarterly, Winter 2006-2007, v30, #1, pp9-25
This article encourages bilateral and multilateral talks
between the United States and adversaries, specifically Iran and
North Korea. Senator Specter argues that the U.S. must engage
with Iran and North Korea regardless of feelings about the countries’
policies and leadership. The senator gives examples of successful
diplomatic efforts with Cuba and Syria, two other nations viewed
as adversaries.. Specter concludes that in his experience, engaging
political leaders, regardless of America’s position on their leadership,
will lead to more successful diplomacy and may even prevent armed
conflict. Arlen Specter is the senior Republican senator from
Pennsylvania, having served since 1980. Christopher Bradish is
an aide to Specter handling defense and foreign policy issues.
Fulltext
A3 - America, Islam, and the 9-11 War
Singer, Peter W.
Current History, December 2006, v105, #695, pp415
The author describes 9/11 as a force that will not only define
a generation of Americans but that has reshaped global politics.
“It gave nearly every single global actor, whether states, international
organizations, or NGOs, a new set of priorities to act on and
new pitfalls to navigate. […] It is now clear that the attacks
on the American homeland and the responses to them have created
a new prism of global affairs, a tension between a state and a
religion that plays out on an international level as never before.
Relations between the world's undisputed superpower and the world
of 1.4 billion Muslim believers can only be viewed as inexorably
changed since 9-11.” Peter W. Singer is the Senior Fellow
in Foreign Policy Studies and Director of the 21st Century Defense
Initiative at the Brookings Institution. Fulltext
A4 - The New Tribalism: Cliques and the Making of U.S. Foreign
Policy
Campbell, Kurt M.; Chollet, Derek
The Washington Quarterly, Winter 2007, v30, #1, pp193–203
"Inside the respective traditional intellectual communities and
political apparatuses of the Republicans and the Democrats are
small groupings that play an increasingly important role in the
overall formulation and execution of U.S. foreign policy. One
cannot properly assess U.S. foreign policy debates without understanding
these cliques." Kurt M. Campbell, director of the International
Security Program, and Henry A. Kissinger Chair in National Security
at CSIS and chairman of The Washington Quarterly editorial board.
Derek Chollet is a fellow in the International Security Program
at CSIS and a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Fulltext
A5 - The Forgotten Bargain: Nonproliferation and Nuclear Disarmament
Harrison, Selig S.
World Policy Journal, Fall 2006, v23, #3, pp1-13
The author points out that “T]he urgent need for a new non-proliferation
policy is underscored not only by the ongoing development of the
North Korean and Iranian nuclear programs, as such, but also by
the resulting danger of regional nuclear arms races in Northeast
Asia and the Middle East-Persian Gulf region.” Selig Harrison
argues that the United States should abandon its "regime
change" and negotiate freeze agreements with North Korea
and Iran, which should be linked to regional security trade-offs
and economic incentives. Selig S. Harrison, Woodrow Wilson
International Center for Scholars. Fulltext
A6 - The Conference of Disarmament: Means of Rejuvenation
Krepon, Michael
Arms Control Today, December 2006, v.36,#10, pp18-22
The author argues that the forum in Geneva that has negotiated
treaties setting norms against nuclear weapons testing and prohibitions
against chemical and biological weapons “has fallen on hard times.”
Ambassadors assigned to the Conference on Disarmament “now moonlight”
on other diplomatic assignments in Switzerland, whereas they once
worked on tight deadlines “to hammer out key provisions governing
on-site inspections and schedules of prohibited substances.” Unfortunately,
Krepon says, the CD has outgrown its mission and is deadlocked
by outmoded consensus rules, but he says there is still a role
for "coalitions of the willing" -- made up of government
and non-government experts -- to lay out the groundwork for agreements
(not necessarily treaties) on issues such as fissile materials
or security in space. Informal meetings might usefully pursue
interim steps. With some adaptation, he says the once distinguished
CD could again have “a useful future.” Michael Kreponis is
co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center. Fulltext
Diplomacy
A7 - The Hard Road Back to Soft Power
Smith, Pamela Hyde
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, v8, #1, Winter/Spring 2007, pp. 115-123
This article describes some aspects of the continuing “downward
slide in global public opinion” of the United States. The author
contends that “anti-American forces are taking advantage of the
collapse of U.S. popularity across the globe, making anti-Americanism
a national security threat.” Citing statistics about the U.S.
image in the world, including a 2002 poll that indicated that
there was not a single Muslim-majority country in which a majority
believed that Arabs had carried out the 9/11 attacks, she observes,
“Reservoirs of goodwill built up over decades have evaporated.”
Pointing out that the U.S. “spends the same on public diplomacy
as Britain or France,” she proposes a ten-fold increase in the
public diplomacy budget and a reorganization of American public
diplomacy efforts, removing the “long-term relationship building
or ‘mutual understanding’ programs” from the State Department
and moving them to a “Public Diplomacy Institute,” which would
include all U.S. soft power institutions, such as the Peace Corps,
USAID, the U.S. Institute for Peace, and the Broadcasting Board
of Governors. Pamela Hyde Smith is a former ambassador to
Moldova and currently teaches at Georgetown University’s School
of Foreign Service. Order
Article
A8 - Open-Source Spying
Thompson, Clive
New York Times Magazine, December 3, 2006, pp54-69
Throughout the intelligence community, "spies are beginning
to wonder why their techonology has fallen so far behind - and
talk about how to catch up." Some believe that the answer
may lie in popular interactive tools sush as YouTube, wikis and
blogs. This article offers information on the efforts of U.S.
intelligence agencies to create customized software and upgrade
their computer systems, and discusses how blogs and wikis could
help spies share information. Clive Thompson is a
contributing writer with the New York Times Magazine. Fulltext
A9 - Notes on the Future of Terrorism
Benjamin, Daniel
Politique Étrangère, December 2006, online edition
“The societies of the West, with their enormous research establishments, will develop many technological remedies and countermeasures to defend themselves. But it will take great ingenuity, vision and determination to keep ahead of those drawn to violence.” The author lines out the results of the first half-decade of “the era of catastrophic terror”. Daniel Benjamin is Senior Fellow at the International Security Program of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Fulltext
A10 - Terrorism Now
New Perspectives Quarterly, Fall 2006, v23, #4, online edition
Experts comment on how the 9/11 attacks and the American-declared
"war on terror" have shaken the world order. By declaring
a war against all islamic radicals -- whether they are seeking
territory in Palestine or a cosmic Caliphate -- has the U.S. transformed
what would otherwise have been local movements into a unified
global jihad?
De-Globalize the Jihad - Roy, Olivier
Al-Qaida Is Down, But Not Out - Woolsey, James R.
A More Humble US, A Better Europe for Muslims - McCain, John
Muslims, the Pope and European Identity - Ramadan, Tariq
Only Democracy Will Break Pakistan’s Terror Link - Bhutto, Benazir
Fulltext Articles
A11 - Annan at the End: Grading the Secretary-General
Schlesinger, Stephen
Foreign Affairs, November/December 2006, v85, #6, pp147
The author reviews "The Best Intentions: Kofi Annan and the
UN in the Era of American Power" by James Traub. This is
one of a number of new books abou the workings of the United Nations.
It is the first full-length account of the ways in which Annan,
despite his well-publicized stumbles, enhanced the UN. Traub presents
a thorough report on one of the UN's most turbulent eras (1997-2006),
using Annan's own record as a way to describe the inner workings
of the UN and provide a first cut at history. The result is one
of the most definitive and accessible studies of the UN and its
chief executive ever published. James Traub is a contributing
writer for The New York Times Magazine. Stephen Schlesinger is
the former Director of the World Policy Institute at the New School
University in New York City (1997-2006). Fulltext
A12 - The FP Memo
James Traub
Foreign Policy, January/February 2007,#158, pp74-79
Traub, the author of a recent book about former UN Secretary-General
Kofi Annan, outlines the challenges facing his successor, Ban
Ki-Moon. Ki-Moon has inherited a UN that, despite growing demand
for its services, is neither very happy nor healthy. Most of the
UN's problems originate because of fundamental differences of
viewpoint among member states. Answerable to a "board with
192 members, many of whom are not on speaking terms with one another,
and almost all of whom are jealous of his authority," Ki-Moon
is much less powerful than a CEO charged with fixing a company
that is losing market share. James Traub is a contributing
writer for The New York Times Magazine. Fulltext
Countries/Regions
A13 - Al-Qaeda Five Years After the Fall of Kandahar
Riedel, Bruce
The Brookings Institution, January 18, 2007, online edition
“Some five years after the fall of Kandahar to American and
Afghan troops the al-Qaeda movement remains vibrant and deadly.
[…] It has spread like a virus […], developing cadre throughout
the Muslim world and in the Muslim Diaspora in Europe. Its ideas
have attracted more followers than ever. It is a more dangerous
enemy today than it was before 911.” This essay reviews al-Qaeda's
path over the last five years and tries to outline a strategy
to defeat it. Bruce Riedel, an expert on the Middle East and
South Asia, is a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution’s
Saban Center for Middle East Policy. Fulltext
A14 - Saving Afghanistan
Rubin, Barrett R.
Foreign Affairs, January-February 2007,vol.86, #1, pp57-78
"With the Taliban resurgent, reconstruction faltering, and
opium poppy cultivation at an all-time high, Afghanistan is at
risk of collapsing into chaos. If Washington wants to save the
international effort there, it must increase its commitment to
the area and rethink its strategy -- especially its approach to
Pakistan, which continues to give sanctuary to insurgents on its
tribal frontier." Barnett R. Rubin, Center on International
Cooperation, New York University. Fulltext
A15 - Darfur and Beyond: What is Needed to Prevent Mass
Atrocities
Feinstein, Lee
Council on Foreign Relations Report no.22, January
2007, online edition, 62p
A lot has been said about the need to take action to stop and
prevent mass atrocities, but states continue to engage in mass
atrocities, in part because they believe it will be tolerated
by the rest of the world. "UN endorsement of the “responsibility
to protect” removes respect for national sovereignty as an excuse
to look the other way when populations are being wiped out. This
report urges Ban Ki-moon to take the General Assembly’s embrace
of this lofty principle as a mandate and mission statement for
the UN, and build a reform program that can begin to implement
it." Lee Feinstein is senior fellow for U.S. foreign
policy and international law at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Fulltext
Asia
A16 - Central Asian Regional Integration: Interests of Partner States and Prospects for Cooperation
Linn, Johannes F.
The Brookings Institution, December 22, 2006, online edition
“The unexpected demise of President Niyazov of Turkmenistan has called renewed attention to the unsettled situation and uncertain prospects for Central Asia, one of the pivotal regions of the world.” This paper reviews the state interests and the prospects of the region as a background to a renewed discussion in Europe and the US how best to engage in Central Asia. Linn argues that it is essential to consider the interests of all partner states in and around Central Asia, if one is to understand the prospects for regional cooperation and integration in the region. Johannes F. Linn is the Executive Director of the Wolfensohn Center for Development. Fulltext
A17 - Five Scenarios for the Iranian Crisis
Perkovich, George
IFRI (French Institute of International Relations), Winter 2006, Proliferation Papers, n°16, online edition
George Perkovich argues that the U.S. has in fact largely abandoned
regime change as a policy objective but that it will have to be
diplomatically creative and persistent to persuade Iran and the
rest of the world. George Perkovich, Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace. Fulltext
A18 - The Bottom Line on Iran: The Costs and Benefits of Preventive War versus Deterrence
Logan, Justin
CATO, December 4, 2006, Policy Analysis no. 583, online edition
This paper examines the options available to the United States
in the face of a prospective final diplomatic collapse. ”Evaluating
the two ultimate options — military action on the one hand and
acceptance and deterrence on the other — reveals that neither
course is attractive. However, the evidence strongly suggests
that the disadvantages of using military action would outweigh
those of acceptance and deterrence.” The author argues that the
U.S. should start to undertake steps without delay to prepare
for the case of Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability.
Justin Logan is a foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute.
Fulltext
A19- The Seven Deadly Sins of Failure in Iraq: A Retrospective
Analysis of the Reconstruction
Pollack, Kenneth M.
The Middle East Review of International Affairs, December
2006, online edition
Pollack claims that “Americans returning from Iraq — military
and civilian alike — have proven unanimous in their view that
the Iraqis desperately want reconstruction to succeed and that
they have the basic tools to make it work, but that the United
States has consistently failed to provide them with the opportunities
and the framework to succeed.” Pollack argues that there is an
“unrealized potential” of democracy as […] “over 40 percent of
Iraqis still clung to the belief that Iraq was headed in the right
direction — with only 35 percent saying it was headed in the wrong
direction.” Kenneth Pollack is the Director of Research at
the Saban Center for Middle East Policy. Fulltext
A20- A Bosnia Option for Iraq
O’Hanlon, Michael E.; Joseph, Edward P.
The American Interest, Jan/Feb2007, v2, #3, online edition
The authors review the current situation in Iraq and consider
new option for Iraq, a Bosnia option, in the event that current
efforts cannot soon turn current security, political and economic
trends around. “A Bosnia Option for Iraq focuses on the controlled
realignment of population groups in order to minimize communal
violence and set the stage for a stable political settlement--what
might be termed a "soft partition" of the country.”
Michael E. O’Hanlon, Brooking Institution. Edward P. Joseph,
Visiting Scholar at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International
Studies. Fulltext
A21 - The Iraq and Agenda Setting
Mazarr, Michael J.
Foreign Policy Analysis, January 2007, pp1-23, online
edition
The author applies concepts of U.S. governmen agenda-setting framework
to a case study of the U.S. decision to launch Operation Iraqi
Freedom in 2003. The essay suggests that the agenda-setting literature
could offer insights to many other examples of foreign policy
decision making, and concludes by suggesting a handful of broader
lessons of the agenda-setting paradigm for the analysis of national
behavior. Michael J. Mazarr is professor of national security
strategies at the U.S. National War College and adjunct professor
of security studies at Georgetown University. Fulltext
A22 - The Year of the Ballot
Castaneda, Jorge; Navia, Patricio
Current History, February 2007, v106, # 697, pp51-57
“Between December 2005 and December 2006, eleven Latin American
countries held presidential elections. As newly elected governments
in Latin America implement their policies and attempt to expand
economic growth, reduce poverty, and tackle the deep inequalities
that persist in their nations, the region’s democratic structures
will be put to a test.” Jorge Castañeda, the foreign minister
of Mexico from 2000 to 2003, is a professor of politics and Latin
American and Caribbean studies at New York University. Patricio
Navia teaches global studies at NYU and political science at Diego
Portales University in Chile. Fulltext
A23 - Was Fidel Good for Cuba?
Montaner, Carlos Alberto, Ramonet, Ignacio
Foreign Policy, January-February 2007, #158, pp56-65
“A debate between Carlos Alberto Montaner and Ignacio Ramonet whether Fidel Castro was good for Cuba is presented. Montaner said that after 50 years of suffering under Fidel Castro's regime, Cubans can now prepare for life after El Comandante. Fidel Castro's death will be the starting point of political and economic changes similar to those that occurred in Europe. Meanwhile, Ramonet argues that even if Castro were as repressive as people, history provides no shortage of examples of discontented people rising up against repression. When Castro eventually succumbs to his illnesses, there is nothing to suggest that Cubans will suddenly rise up against socialism.” Carlos Alberto Montaner is a syndicated columnist whose articles appear in Europe, Latin America, and the United States. Ignacio Ramonet is editor of Le Monde Diplomatique in Paris. Fulltext
A24 - Lebanese Identity and Israeli Security in the Shadows of the 2006 War
Telhami, Shibley
Current History, January 2007, v106, #696, pp21
“The Lebanon war of 2006 appears to have had a polarizing effect among Lebanon’s sects, especially between the Shiites and the rest. [… However, there is] a continuing sense of Lebanese identity and some shared values. It is also balanced by the majority view, including among Shiites, that the Lebanese are ready for a comprehensive settlement with Israel. If the question of who won the Israeli-Lebanon war matters for security prospects, so does the question of whether public attitudes permit the search for peace to go forward. The vast majority of Lebanese, expressing an aversion to US policies rather than to Americans themselves, still want to see an American effort to broker a lasting peace in the region.” Shibley Telhami is a professor of political science at the University of Maryland and a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Request Article
A25 - From Conflict Management to Conflict Resolution
Djerejian, Edward P.
Foreign Affairs, November-December 2006, v85, #6, p41
The author comments on the opportunity to produce a comprehensive
Israeli-Arab peace settlement following the recent armed conflict.
“The United States should seize this moment to transform the cease-fire
in the Hezbollah-Israeli conflict into a step toward a comprehensive
Arab-Israeli peace settlement. […] Peace can come only from negotiated
agreements that bind both sides.” Ambassador Djerejian is
the Founding Director of the James A. Baker III Institute for
Public Policy at Rice University. Fulltext
North Korea
A26 - North Korea Options 2007
Park,Hyeong Jung
Brookings Northeast Asia Commentary, January 2007, online edition
"Last October, North Korea detonated a nuclear device
despite strong opposition from all neighboring countries and the
United States. The action cast a shadow over the multilateral
negotiating effort sponsored by China – the Six-Party Talks –
to de-nuclearize the Korean peninsula. Pessimists concluded that
North Korea would not give up the nuclear weapons it already possesses
any time soon, if ever. Even optimists agreed that finding the
right package of incentives to induce Pyongyang to disarm and
dismantle its nuclear programs had just gotten more difficult."
Hyeong Jung Park is Visiting Fellow at the Center
for Northeast Asian Policy Studies. Fulltext
A27 - Russia: “European But Not Western?”
Gvosdev, Nikolas K.
Orbis, January 2007, v51 #1, pp129-140
"The question whether Russia is part of the Western world has plagued Russian intellectuals and Western observers alike for the past two centuries. The question matters because where Russia “belongs” is part of a larger debate about how one differentiates between “the West” and “the Rest” given changes in the Western family of nations, and because of larger questions of geopolitical alignment. The Slavophile vs. Westernizer paradigm, which suggests that throughout Russia there are two opposing camps engaged in a struggle to determine the course of the country is too simple to reflect the true complexity of post-Soviet Russia. Moreover, an equilibrium may have been reached where not answering the question of Russia's relationship to the West is desirable for all parties concerned.
Nikolas K. Gvosdev is Editor of The National Interest and a Senior Fellow in Strategic Studies at The Nixon Center. Order Article
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