| Updated Long-Term Projections for Social Security
Congressional Budget Office, Updated June 2006, online edition, 26p
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) first released long-term (100-year) Social Security projections in The Outlook for Social Security (June 2004). The findings include: “At the present time, Social Security revenues are greater than outlays, but as the baby-boom generation continues to age, outlays will grow substantially faster than revenues. CBO projects that outlays will begin to exceed revenues in 2019 and that the Social Security trust funds will be exhausted in 2046. SSA would then no longer have the legal authority to pay full benefits. In the years following trust fund exhaustion, payable benefits would be substantially lower than scheduled benefits because annual outlays would be constrained to equal annual revenues. CBO’s projections of benefit levels indicate that future beneficiaries will receive higher retirement benefits — and pay higher Social Security taxes — than current beneficiaries do, even after adjustments for inflation and for the reductions that occur after the trust funds are exhausted. However, those benefits will represent a smaller percentage of their preretirement earnings than is the case now.”
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