| September-October 2006
Foreign Policy | Arms Control | Defense | Human Rights | Intelligence | Terrorism | United Nations |
Countries/Regions: | Africa | Asia | Iran | Iraq | Middle East | North Korea | Russia | Turkey
A1 - U.S. Foreign Policy in the 21st Century: Regional Issues
Department of States, Electronic Journal. September 2006, 42p
“Introduced by Secretary Rice, this electronic journal features essays by each regional bureau Assistant Secretary outlining U.S. policy in that region. Each essay also explains the Assistant Secretary’s personal vision for that region, and outlines how the Secretary’s ‘transformational diplomacy’ will help our international partners build and sustain democratic, well-governed states.” Fulltext
A2 - The 9-11 War Plus 5: Looking Back and Looking Forward at US-Islamic World Relations
Singer, Peter
Brookings Institution, US Relations with the Islamic World, Analysis Paper #10, September 2006, online edition, 27p
"Five years in, it is now clear that the 9-11 attacks
created a new dynamic for global politics, and thus American foreign
policy, centering around the changed relationship between a state
and a religion. The most dominant superpower in world history
and the world’s fastest growing religious community of 1.4 billion
Muslim believers now stand locked in a dynamic of mutual suspicion,
distrust, and anger... We have entered the era of the 9-11 War,
a contestation in the realm of ideas and security that is quintessentially
21st century in its modes and processes. This melding of hot and
cold war is not a battle between, but a battle within. Most worrisome,
five years in, it is not going well so far for either the U.S.
or the Muslim world..." Peter Warren Singer, Senior Fellow
and Director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative at the Brookings
Institution.He is also a founder and organizer of the U.S.-Islamic
World Forum, a global conference that brings together American
and Muslim world leaders. Fulltext
A3 - Transformational Leadership and U.S. Grand Strategy
Nye, Joseph S.
Foreign Affairs, July/August 2006, v85,#4, pp. 123-148
"Through changes he made to U.S. grand strategy after the
September 11 terrorist attacks, George W. Bush hopes to be remembered
as a "transformational president", leaving a lasting
mark on U.S. foreign policy. The author points out that while
senior administration officials believe "Bush's aggressive
democratization will prove successful", evidence offered
by history is less optimistic. Since the beginning of the 19th
century, the only durable shifts in grand strategy were those
of Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman. A President hoping for
transformational policy to succeed usually requires a crisis and
particular leadership skills. Bush's legacy depends largely on
the outcome in the war in Iraq; as on now, the jury is still out."
Joseph S. Nye Jr. is distinguished service professor at Harvard
and author of Soft Power: The Means to Success in World Politics.
Fulltext
A4 - Banning Fissile Material Production For Nuclear Weapons: Prospects For A Treaty (FMCT)
Squassoni, Sharon, Andres Demkee, and Jill Marie Parillo,
The Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service, July 14, 2006, 6p.
“On May 18, 2006, the United States proposed a draft Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) at the Conference on Disarmament (CD) in Geneva. The U.S. draft treaty, would enter into force with only the five established nuclear weapon states. It would ban new production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium for use in nuclear weapons for 15 years; could be extended only by consensus of the parties; would allow high-enriched uranium production for naval fuel; and contains no provisions for verification other than national technical means. The next step is for the CD to adopt a negotiating mandate, the prospects for which appear uncertain, given continued linkage by some states of FMCT negotiations with other disarmament talks. The CD meets again from July 31 to September 15.” Sharon Squassoni is Specialist in National Defense, Andrew Demkee and Jill Marie Parillo are Research Associates. They are all affiliated with the Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division at CRS. Fulltext
A5 - Trafficking in Nuclear and Radioactive Material in 2005
International Atomic Energy Agency, August 21, 2006, online edition, 9p
In this annual study, the International Atomic Energy Agency publishes
newly released statistics from the Agency´s Illicit Trafficking
Database (ITDB). Maintained since 1995, “the ITDB covers a broad
range of cases from illegal possession, attempted sale and smuggling,
to unauthorized disposal of materials and discoveries of lost
radiological sources. There were 103 confirmed incidents of illicit
trafficking and other unauthorized activities involving nuclear
and radioactive materials in 2005.” The report provides more details.
This website links to the full report and to additional background
information. Fulltext
A6 - Nuclear Nonproliferation: IAEA Safeguards and Other Measures to Halt the Spread of Nuclear Weapons and Material. Testimony by before the Subcommittee on National Security, Emerging Threats, and International Relations, House Committee on Government Reform
Aloise, Gene
Government Accountability Office, September 26, 2006, 32p
“The International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) safeguards system has been a cornerstone of U.S. efforts to prevent nuclear weapons proliferation since the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was adopted in 1970. Safeguards allow IAEA to verify countries' compliance with the NPT. Since the discovery in 1991 of a clandestine nuclear weapons program in Iraq, IAEA has strengthened its safeguards system. In addition to IAEA's strengthened safeguards program, there are other U.S. and international efforts that have helped stem the spread of nuclear materials and technology that could be used for nuclear weapons programs." Gene Aloise is director, natural resources and environment at the Government Accountability Office. Fulltext
A7 - Reforming Pentagon Strategic Decisionmaking
Lamb, Christopher J.; Lachow, Irving
Strategic Forum, July 2006, no.221, online edition, 4p
A major surprise in the Department of Defense 2006 Quadrennial
Defense Review (QDR) Report to Congress is the prominence it gives to decisionmaking reform. Pentagon leaders thought that improvements
to the decisionmaking process prior to the QDR would facilitate hard choices on new military capabilities. Yet by the end of the QDR, they concluded that additional decisionmaking reforms were one of two fundamental strategic imperatives for the Department." This article discusses a Decision Support Cell to improve Pentagon decisionmaking and identifies prerequisites for good decisionmaking. Christopher J. Lamb is a Senior Research Fellow in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University. Irving Lachow is a Senior Research Professor in the Information Resources Management College at the National Defense University. Fulltext
A8 - The Geneva Conventions and the New Wars
De Nevers, Renee
Political Science Quarterly, v121, #3, Fall 2006, pp.369-395
This article explores how the Geneva Conventions, adopted in 1949, apply to "new wars," such as the fight against terrorism, where those directly involved in fighting include non-traditional soldiers such as
warlords, child soldiers and private security companies. The author argues that, although the nature of war and those who fight wars has changed dramatically since the conventions were adopted, the conventions should not be abandoned, but rather should address these changes. The author argues that applying the Geneva Conventions will create greater international support for the U.S. war on terrorism because it will protect U.S. soldiers and citizens, garner multilateral support, and protect victims of war everywhere and concludes that "To ensure the cooperation that it needs to pursue terrorists, and to regain the high ground in this fight, the United States should lead the way...in creating a stronger framework to protect people from dangers they face in conflict zones and lawless societies," Renee de Nevers is an assistant professor of public administration in the Maxwell School at Syracuse University. Order Article
Intelligence
A9 - Old Allies, New Friends: Intelligence-Sharing in the War on Terror
Reveron, Derek S.
Orbis, Summer 2006, v50,#3, pp.453-468
"The Bush administration's designation of its national strategy as a war on terror highlights the importance of combating terrorism on an international level. Fundamental to this effort is bilateral intellignence-sharing. Intelligence reform efforts to date have focused on improving intelligence-sharing within the U.S. intelligence community. However, critical intelligence can be gained through America's international partners. This paper assesses the state of bilateral intelligence-sharing relationships and the challenges that need to be overcome." Derek Reveron is an associate professor at the Naval War College, an editorial board member of the "Defense Intelligence Journal" and a long-time intelligence analyst. Order Article
A10 - How al-Qaida Ends: The Decline and Demise of Terrorist Groups
Cronin, Audrey Kurth
International Security, Summer 2006, v31,#1, pp7-48
"Al-Qaida will end. The fear that a small terrorist organization with a loose network has transformed itself into a protracted global ideological struggle without an end in sight is misguided. There are centuries of experience with modern terrorist movements, many bearing important parallels with al-Qaida; yet the lessons arising from the demise of these groups are little studied. Unfortunately, terrorist organizations in their final stages are often at their most dangerous. The outcomes can range from implosion of a group and its cause to transition to astonishing acts of violence and interstate war. Comparing al-Qaida's differences and similarities with those of earlier terrorist organizations, and applying relevant lessons to this case, can provide insights into al-Qaida's likely demise. It can also inform thinking about how to manage and hasten al-Qaida's end." Audrey Kurth Cronin is Direcotr of Studies of the Changing Character iof War Program at Oxford University. She is also on the University's international relations faculty. Order Article
A11 - Al Qaeda's Pandemic
Kitfield, James
National Journal, September 2, 2006, v38, #35, pp.20-27
This article focuses on Islamic extremism and the bombings
in 2004 in Madrid, Spain. According to Mario Mancuso, deputy assistant
secretary of defense for special operations and counterterrorism,
the metric of success of counterterrorism is halting the spread
of extremist ideology. The bombings in Madrid were an unnoticed
success of Islamic extremists, also in view of the withdrawal
of all Spanish troops from Iraq. James Kitfield emphasizes in
this article the importance of "tracking exactly how the
global jihad translates such violent impulses into distant actions
is critical to grasping how the virulent terrorism that struck
the United States on September 11, 2001, had mutated in the past
five years. That knowledge is key to understanding the degree
to which the virus is still spreading. For him, "broad counterinsurgencies
are almost never won on the battlefield. Victory will have to
come in the political arena." James Kitfield is a defense
and foreign affairs correspondent for the "National Journal".
Fulltext
A12 -High-Tech Terrorism: Al-Qaeda's Use of the New Technology
Brachmann, Jarrett M.
Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Summer 2006, v30, #2, pp149-164"Al-Qaeda has transformed itself into an organic social movement, using the Internet to make its virulent ideology accessible to anyone with a computer. By "weaponizing the Internet" terrorists are more effectively sharing information, distributung propaganda, and training for future attacks. For the United States to defeat al-Qaeda and the broader jihadi movement, it must first gain a better appreciation of the ways in which the movement is successfully fueling itself by harnessing new technologies." Jarrett M . Brachmann is a conterterrorism research director at thee United States Military Academy. Fulltext
A13 - The United States and the United Nations:
One Strand in a Multilateral Strategy
Forman, Shepard
American Foreign Policy Interest, August 2006, #28, pp.329-332
"The
United States, for its part, has always taken a utilitarian view
of the United Nations. In recent years, however, U.S. administrations
have increasingly opted for the sharp edge of that initially ethical
concept, utilizing the UN as an instrument to advance narrow U.S.
foreign policy interests rather than as a doctrine for collective
action
designed to achieve ‘‘the greatest good for the greatest number
of people..."" In arguing that a narrow concept of utilitarianism
is having a profound effect on multilateral institutions, especially
the UN, the author states that alternating between hectoring and
using the organization selectively cannot continue to characterize
the U.S. stance toward the UN. He also argues that the United
States must take a role in defining the UN's role and in building
its capacity to act in areas where national and global interests
coincide, signaling a return to ethical utilitarianism."
Shepard Forman is director of the Center on International
Cooperation at New York University. Order Article
Countries/Regions
A14 - West African Integration: A New Development Paradigm?
Kaplan, Seth
Washington Quarterly; Autumn2006, v29, #4, pp81-97
"Africa found itself in an unusual position last year: at
the center of international attention. It even occupied the top
place on the Group of Eight(G-8) agenda at the 2005 summit in
Gleneagles, Scotland. Helping long-troubled regions such as West
Africa requires nothing less than embracing a new development
paradigm. Instead of simply continuing to pump billions annually
into the region's many dysfunctional regimes, local leaders and
the developed world should focus on regionalism. In recent years,
a new generation of African leaders has promoted regionalism as
a crucial element in solving the continent’s myriad security and
economic problems. Regional integration may offer the only way
to craft the commercial environment necessary to attract investment,
without which no development can occur or be sustained, and to
wean countries from their chronic dependence on aid." Seth
Kaplan is a freelance writer currently working on a book on alternative
development strategies for fragile states. Fulltext
A15 - American Strategy in the New East
Ikenberry, John G.
The American Interest, September/October 2006, v2, #1, pp89-94
"East Asia is a region in transition, so everyone is saying. To what, however, no one is sure. The old order in East Asia is organized around American military and economic dominance, anchored in the U.S.-Japan alliance. For fifty years that U.S. dominance has provided stability, security and open markets as Japan, South Korea and other Asian countries developed, democratized and joined the modern world. The worry today is that the new order in Asia will not be orderly at all, but will instead be marked by a return to unstable great-power rivalry as China, the United States and Japan compete for security and influence.In the worst case, East Asia will come to look like something like Europe in the 1870s, as British hegemony gave way to power transitions, security dilemmas, military competition and a struggle for regional mastery. This is not a future that the United States and its allies should welcome." G. John Ikenberry is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and author, most recently, of Liberal Order and Imperial Ambition. Order Article
A16 - The United States and the Rise of China and India
The Chicago Council of Global Affairs, October 11, 2006, online edition, 89p
“The study presents a unique comparison of international attitudes on how the emergence of China and India as economic dynamos and claimants to great power status will affect the global economy, international security, and politics. It assesses American public opinion on a variety of challenges facing the United States today, including international terrorism, nuclear proliferation, conflict in the Middle East, the rising economic and political power of Asia, economic competition from abroad, and threats to energy supplies and the environment. The study also provides an understanding of how the Chinese and Indian publics view their nations’ international challenges and opportunities and their respective roles as emerging great powers.” The Chicago Council on Global Affairs released the findings of its 2006 Public Opinion Study on Wednesday, October 11, 2006. The study, which the Council conducts biennially, was conducted in partnership with the Asia Society. In addition to polling in the United States, the study included nationally representative polls of China and India. Parallel surveys were also conducted in South Korea in conjunction with the East Asia Institute and in Australia in conjunction with the Lowy Institute on International Policy. Fulltext
A17 - Iran: Balancing East against West
Vakil, Sanam
Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2006, v29, #4, pp51-65
"Iran has searched for and found strategic partners willing to accept its nefarious activities and willing to deal with it on a quid pro quo basis. Iran’s carefully cultivated relationships with China, Russia, and India are providing it with the economic and political coverage that it could never obtain from the West. From the perspective of Iran’s leaders and their Eastern counterparts, a perfect storm of interests is gathering, anchoring the strategic Silk Road and enabling these countries to circumvent the United States and Europe. This shift has been effective in light of the pending nuclear crisis, as Iran is now successfully using its cultivated commercial and strategic relations with China, Russia, and India to counterbalance the threat of Western nuclear sanctions..." This article discusses the balancing act of Iran between the East against the West, by holding the economic power of Asia against the U.S. and Europe. Sanam Vakil is an assistant professor of Middle East studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). Fulltext
A18- Assessing Iran's Nuclear Programmes
Fitzpatrick, Mark
Survival, Fall 2006, v48,#3, pp5-26
"The many indicators of military involvement in Iran's nuclear programme strongly suggest that Iran seeks more than just a latent nuclear-weapons capability, although not necessarily an all-out Manhattan Project-style effort. Depending on assumptions about technical variables, the earliest Iran might be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon is assessed to fall between the end of 2008 and 2010, a range that might be said to be within the margin of error, given the unknowns about the pro gramme and the inspectors' sharply decreased access. This timetable provides room for diplomacy. There are strong arguments, with universal appeal, for opposing an Iranian nuclear-weapons capability." Mark Fitzpatrick is IISS Senior Fellow for Non-Porliferation. Fulltext
A19 - Judging the Iranian Threat: 20 Questions We Need to Answer
Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS),Web-posted September 19, 2006, online edition, 12p
"Iran’s actions in the last year have unsettled many around the world, provoking an active and rich debate as to how nations should best respond. Embedded in this debate are widely divergent assumptions, assessments, and conclusions about Iranian intentions and Iranian actions. Few people will agree on the answers to all 20 questions. They differ sometimes on the basis of fact, and other times on the basis of judgment. Yet, it is precisely those answers that determine both the threats and opportunities contained in Iran’s actions and the world’s potential responses. In the interest of promoting a healthy debate on these issues, CSIS has not only laid out the questions, but it has also prepared two opposing responses for each question to help illustrate the vibrancy of the debate. Although CSIS as an institution has no position on these questions, the wide range of experts at CSIS provides equally wide-ranging analysis. Fulltext
A20 - Preparing for Nation-Building
Dobbins, James
Survival, Fall 2006, v48,#3,pp27-40
"Preparation for Nation-Building requires that responsible
political leaders consult both with regional and functional experts,
those who know why the society in question descended into conflict
and those who know from experience elsewhere how to put such societies
back together. Goals must be established which transcend the most
immediate and normally negative purposes of the intervention,
e.g.halting conflict, stopping genocide or turning back aggression.
These positive goals must be commensurate with the scale of military
manpower and economic assistance likely to be committed. The larger
the social transformation envisaged, the greater the resistance
likely to be encountered. The most common cause for the failure
of nation-building endeavours is a mismatch between objectives
and commitments." James Dobbins is a former Assistant
Secretary of State for Europe. He is currently Director of the
International Security and Defense Policy Center at the Rand Corporation.
Order Article
A22 - Lessons of the Korean War for the "Six-Party Talks"
Holmes, James R.
World Affairs, Summer 2006, v169, #1; pp3-24
"Through a detailed case study of the negotiating process that ended the Korean War, the author illustrates what he considers key lessons to resolve today's nuclear standoff on the Korean peninsula. In both cases, North Korea, China and the United States came to the table with vital interests at stake, but unlike in 1953, none of the negotiating parties today will be able to improve their bargaining position and undercut others -- the U.S. is averse to using military force, and North Korea has hardened its facilities and its regime helped firmly in control. Another Key difference is that while China's support helped to sustain Pyongyang in the 1950's, particularly after Stalin's death, which helped during the the Korean War negotiations, its influence on Kim Jong-Il today is been greatly exaggerated. Until North Korea's disastrous socioeconomic conditions threaten its regime, Holmes concludes, "the United States and its partners have few obvious options other than to keep North Korea hemmed in, encourage China to use such influence as it possesses, and pursue patient negotiations." James R. Holmes is a senior research associate at the University of Georgia Center for International Trade and Security, Athens, GA, and a former professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College, Newport, RI. His current research focuses on Chinese naval strategy and sea power in Asia. Fulltext
A23 - North Korean Civil-Military Trends: Military-First Politics to A Point
Gause, Ken E.
Institute for Strategic Studies, U.S. Army War College, October 04, 2006, online edition, 60p
“Civil-military relations is one of the most challenging dimensions to deal with regarding North Korea. Since 1998, Pyongyang’s foremost policy has been declared as ‘military-first.’ While experts debate the precise meaning and significance of this policy, considerable consensus exists that it gives the leading role to the Korean People’s Army (KPA. Hence, military leaders in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea are very powerful and influential figures. Who are they? What kind of power and influence do these leaders wield, and how do they exert it? How do KPA leaders interact with dictator Kim Jong Il and their civilian counterparts? Mr. Ken Gause sets out to answer these questions in this monograph.” Ken E. Gause is the Director of the Foreign Leadership Studies Program of the
Center for Strategic Studies, CNA Corporation, in Alexandria, VA. Fulltext
A24 - When North Korea Falls
Kaplan, Robert
Atlantic Monthly, October 2006, v298, #3, pp.64-773
Robert Kaplan notes that Pyongyang's missile tests and nuclear brinksmanship may obscure a greater threat: the prospect of the collapse of the North Korean egime. According to the author there is evidence that the internal workings of the regime are starting to fray -- " totalitarian regimes close to demise are apt to get panicky and do rash things." A war on the Korean peninsula would be horrific, as the North maintains a huge standing army amd thousands of artillety batteries along the DMZ. The author describes various scenarios that might happen with the breakdown of authority in Pyongpang and how it might affect the strained relations between Japna, Korea and China. He suspects that a unified Korea after such an event would probably not be viable, as South Koreans would not be interested in the disruption a collapse of the North would produce. He believes that the ultimate beneficiary would be China, which might use a Greater Korea as a key in its long-term plans for dominatins the Asian economic sphere. Robert Kaplan is correspondant for 'Atlantic" and a visiting professor at the US Naval Academy. Fulltext
Russia
A25 - Suspended Animation: The US and Russia after the G-8
Wallander, Celeste A.
Current History, October 2006, v105, #693, pp315-320
"The article offers information regarding the foundering
relationship between Russia and the U.S. after the Group of Eight
(G-8) summit is held in Saint Petersburg, Russia in July 2006.
The author stated that, the ties between the two countries has
reached into a low point because of their conflict of interest
on matters including transnational terrorism and weapons nonproliferation.
He added that, issues in the G-8 meeting focused on their relationship
as a state of suspended animation." Celeste A. Wallander
is a visiting associate professor in the Edmund A. Walsh School
of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Fulltext
A26 -Russia's Ersatz Democracy
Shevtsova,
Lilia
Current History, October 2006, v10,#693, pp307-314
"Russia’s political evolution has entered a strange
stage. The ruling elite is trying to use popular elections to
legitimize a regime
that is based on personified power and bureaucratic authority.
It is trying to buttress the social order by restoring Russia’s
great power status while invoking nostalgia for a past that the
elite itself
rejects and fears. In all of these endeavors, Russia’s leaders
are experimenting with a model of national transformation that
attempts a unique fusion of conflicting elements: of tradition
and postmodernity;
of autocracy and democracy; of the market and state control; of
partnership with the West and a rejection of Western values."
What will it take ask the author for Russia’s political class
and society to realize that the current paradigm of development
leads to a dead end? This article looks into the political situation
of Russia and its simultaneous civilizational dimensions. Lilia
Shevtsova is a senior associate at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
She is the author of Putin’s Russia (Carnegie, 2005). Fulltext
A27 - Turkey, the United States and the Delusion of Geopolotics
Lesser, Ian O.
Survival, Fall 2006, v48,#3, pp83-95
"US-Turkish relations have been driven by a narrow concept of geopolitics.Today, the key questions are not geographic or theoretical - whether Turkey is a bridge or a barrier, a flank or a front - but how Turkey will act, and whether Turkey and American policies are convergent or divergent. For decades, the relationship between Ankara and Washington have been described as "strategic". The strategic quality of the relationship can no longer be taken for granted. A reinvigorated strategic relationship is possible, but is likely to have quite different contours, with new forms of engagement and more realistic expectations." Ian O. Lesser is a Public Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington DC, He is a former member of the Policy Planning Staff in the US Department of State. Order article
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