| September-October 2005
Foreign Policy | Arms Control | Defense Policy | Terrorism | United Nations |
Countries/Regions: Afghanistan | Balkans| India | Iran | Iraq | Middle East | North Korea | Palestine | Russia | South Korea |
A1 - American Grand Strategy in a World at Risk
Mead, Walter Russell
Orbis, v49, #4, Fall 2005, pp589-598
"If there is no one long-standing American grand strategy, one nonetheless sees through the course of U.S. history the tracks of a grand strategy. It started with the idea of a U.S. monopoly in the Western Hemisphere, along with balances of power in the chief theaters of the world; with belief in the primacy of sea and air power and the need for an economic system to support these; and the objective of transforming international politics. Since 9/11, even if the strategic hierarchy, intensity, and political basis have changed, the Bush administration has largely been continuing in this same project, with a sensible strategy but poorly considered tactics." Walter Russell Mead is the Kissinger Senior Fellow in U.S. foreign policy at the Council of Foreign Relations. (This article is based on a lecture given as part of the Thornton D. Hooper Lecture Series on American strategy the Thornton D. Hooper Lecture Series on American Strategy in celebration of FPRI’s 50th Anniversary in 2005.) Order article - View streaming Video
A2 - Cheap Hawks, Cheap Doves, and the Pursuit of Strategy
Sicherman, Harvey
Orbis, v49, #4, Fall 2005, pp613-628
"The post-9/11 threats to American security require a complete revision of American national strategy. For too long, presidents have had to favor quick, cheap solutions to crises, unable to count on support from the “homebody” public for long, drawn-out conflicts. “Cheap hawks” among them have hoped that apocalyptic rhetoric will suffice when resources fall short; “cheap doves” hope that by ignoring the threat, it will go away. But with the war on terror, the revival of geopolitics, and ever-accelerating globalization, the U.S. tradition of bellicose rhetoric backed by underwhelming force is a recipe for failure. To effectively manage its threats, America needs a new catechism and to make sure its economic, energy, and military policies support this." Harvey Sichermann is the president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). (This article is based on a lecture given as part of the Thornton D. Hooper Lecture Series on American Strategy in celebration of FPRI’s 50th Anniversary in 2005.) Order article - View streaming Video
A3 - Global Threats and American Strategies: From Communism in 1955 to Islamism in 2005
Kurth, James
Orbis, v49, #4, Fall 2005, pp631-648
”America's current security threats -- the insurgency in Iraq, Islamic terrorism, and Iran's efforts to obtain nuclear weapons -- seem strange and unprecedented. Parallels can be drawn, however between the security threats of 2005 and those of fifty years ago. The US foreign policy developed to confront the communist threat offers lessons as we develop strategies to combat today’s threat." James Kurth is the Claude Smith Professor of Political Science at Swarthmore College and editor of Orbis. (This article is based on a lecture given as part of the Thornton D. Hooper Lecture Series on American Strategy in celebration of FPRI’s 50th Anniversary in 2005.). Order article - View streaming Video
A4 - Fighting The Illicit Trafficking Of Small Arms
Stohl, Rachel J.
SAIS Review, Winter-Spring 2005, v25, #1, pp59-68
The author notes that illicit trafficking in small arms is a transnational phenomenon. Terrorist groups are dealing in small arms on a global scale, and combating this trade is critical to the U.S. campaign against extremism. Stohl writes that the line is often blurred between the legitimate and illicit trade in small arms, aided by the lack of strict international controls. Rachel Stohl is senior analyst at the Center for Defense Information in Washington. Fulltext
A5 - Adherence to and Compliance With Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament Agreements And Commitments
U.S. Department of State, August 2005, 112p
The report provides an assessment of obligations undertaken in arms control, nonproliferation, and disarmament treaties, agreements, and commitments. A primary objective of the report is to highlight cases of noncompliance or of compliance concern, so that policymakers can focus their attention upon returning violators to full compliance as rapidly as possible.” Fulltext
A6 - The Day After an Attack, What Would We Wish We Had Done? Why Aren’t We Doing It Now? Testimony Before the 9/11 Public Discourse Project
Nunn, Sam
Nuclear Threat Initiative, June 27, 2005, 6p.
The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) is dedicated to reducing the threats from nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. According to NTI Co-Chair Sam Nunn, the threat of terrorism with nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction present the gravest danger to the U.S. and the world. In this testimony, he admits that important steps have already been taken toward greater security. However, he continues describing four nuclear-related threats that the U.S. is facing today. Sam Nunn, NTI Co-chair, is a former U.S. Senator. Fulltext
A7 -
Post-Nuclear Strategy
Blechman, Barry M.
The National Interest, Summer 2005, #80, pp86-92
Blechman discusses the continued threat of Russian and Chinese nuclear arsenals, as well as the present and future threat posed by nations like North Korea and Iran and by extremists. These threats require that the U.S. redouble supply-side restraints such as the Comprehensive Threat Reduction program, strengthen IAEA safeguards, and promote multilateral cooperation. Barry M. Blechman is Co-founder and chairman of the Henry L. Stimson Center in Washington, DC. Fulltext
A8 - Rethinking Non-Proliferation
Carpenter Galen, Ted; Peña, Charles V.
The National Interest, Summer 2005, #80, pp81-85
” Although proliferation of nuclear weapons and the need to deter new nuclear powers are not welcome prospects, we must be realistic and recognize the likelihood that the number of nuclear powers in the international system will increase in the coming decades and that many of those new members of the global nuclear club will be unsavory regimes. Washington's non-proliferation efforts should concentrate on delaying rogue states in their quest for nuclear weapons, not on badgering peaceful states that may want to become nuclear powers for legitimate security reasons. The problems confronting a focused non-proliferation policy are daunting enough without continuing the vain effort to prevent all forms of proliferation.” Ted Galen Carpenter and Charles V. Peña are affiliated with the Cato Institute. Fulltext
A9 - The Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons: New Doctrine Falls Short of Bush Pledge
Kristensen, Hans M.
Arms Control Today, September 2005, v35, # 7, online edition
A draft Pentagon doctrine calls for maintaining an aggressive nuclear posture with weapons on high alert to strike adversaries armed with weapons of mass destruction (WMD), pre-emptively if necessary. It has been influenced by the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and other directives published by the Bush administration. The author writes, "the new U.S. nuclear doctrine falls far short of fulfilling the administration's publicly stated goals. Instead of replacing the role of nuclear weapons, the new doctrine merely calls for conventional forces and missile defenses to complement them.” Hans M. Kristensen is co-author of the World Nuclear Forces appendix to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s Yearbook and a consultant to the Natural Resources Defense Council. Fulltext
A10 - A.Q. Khan Nuclear Chronology
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Proliferation Brief, September 7, 2005, v8, #8, 10p.
”The complete extent of Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan’s decades-long involvement in the illegal transfer of nuclear materials and technologies is not known. The details are submerged in Khan’s work over the past thirty years, which has included both the development of Pakistan’s uranium enrichment capabilities and a complex international network of experts, suppliers, and front companies that have aided Iran, Libya, North Korea, and potentially others… This chronology summarizes what we now know.” Fulltext
A11 - Sustaining Military Capabilities in the 21st Century: Rethinking the Utility of the Principles of War
Carafano, James Jay
Heritage Lecture #896, September 6, 2005, online edition
The principles of war that have guided the planning of military campaigns from the American Civil War to the conflict in Iraq do not “reflect the imperative of creating and maintaining military power, particularly the role of the private sector. The lack of attention that the principles confer on retaining preponderance in power makes their application to 21st century wars particularly problematic. Many of the most potentially disruptive and dramatic changes in future conflicts may be driven not by how battles are fought, but in how the instruments of power are marshaled by states and non-state actors.” James Jay Carafano is affiliated with the Heritage Foundation. Fulltext
A12 - The Invisible Bankers
Freedman, Michael
Forbes, October 17, 2005, v176, #8, pp94-104
“One of the most difficult and frustrating aspects of battling international terrorism is following the flow of money that supports it. Funds used to underwrite terror frequently start off "clean" and become "dirty" much later. The sheer size of the global financial industry has confounded prosecutors' attempts at untangling the illegal use of money transfers from the innocent one of sending money home for relatives' living expenses. Tracing any of the money to an individual in a remote corner of the world is all but impossible, and just as U.S. and other Western investigators clamp down on one sort of mechanism, terrorists figure out a new scheme." Michael Freedman is a staff writer for “Forbes Magazine.” Fulltext
A13 - U.N. Security Council Expansion is Not in the U.S. Interest
Gardiner, Nile; Schafer, Brett D.
The Heritage Foundation, Backgrounder # 1876, August 18, 2005
” The Bush Administration has correctly set increased effectiveness of the Security Council as the benchmark for Council reform. As the war on terrorism continues to unfold around the globe, as greater urgency is paid to limiting the spread of weapons of mass destruction, and as the free world faces a growing threat from rogue regimes such as Iran and North Korea, the U.N. Security Council can play an important and useful role. It is in the U.S. national interest to have a lean and effective Security Council that can help address these issues on the international stage. Unfortunately, the most prominent proposals to expand the Security Council will have the opposite effect. Nile Gardiner and Brett D. Schaefer are both affiliated with the Heritage Foundation. Fulltext
A14 -
Upcoming World Summit Offers Rare Opportunity to Redesign the U.N. for the Future
French, Hilary
Worldwatch Institute Global Security Brief #7, September 2005,online edition
This article, published in advance of the UN’s 2005 World Summit, outlines the global security threats of the 21 st century, including underlying sources of instability such as human deprivation and environmental decline and the broad goals, many of which -- especially actions on reforms of the United Nations itself -- will need to be followed up by the General Assembly during its 60th session. Hilary French is affiliated with the Worldwatch Institute’s Globalization and Governance Project. Fulltext
A15 - UN Reform and the U.S.: Fork in the Road
Laurenti, Jeffrey
The World Today, v61, #8/9, August 2005, pp4-8
Washington interest in alleged corruption in the Iraq Oil-for-Food program is evidence the UN does matter. Laurenti discusses the U.S. attempts to reform and strengthen UN institutional capacity. Jeffrey Laurenti is a senior fellow at The Century Foundation. Fulltext
Countries-Regions
A16 - Provincial Teams and Military Relations with international and Nongovernmental Organizations in Afghanistan
Special Report No. 147, United States Institute of Peace, September 2005, 16p
Michael J. Dziedzic; Seidl, Colonel Michael K.
” Deployed in Afghanistan during Operation Enduring Freedom, Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) combine military personnel and civilian staff from the diplomatic corps and developmental agencies. Their mission is to: extend the authority of the Afghan central government, promote and enhance security, and facilitate humanitarian relief and reconstruction operations.” This report examines ongoing concerns such as security, the proper role of the military in providing assistance, information sharing, coordination, and preservation of the “humanitarian space” that NGOs and IOs rely upon to perform their tasks. Fulltext
A17 - Kosovo and Serbia after the French ‘Non’
Pond, Elizabeth
Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2005, v28, #4, pp19-36
”If the promise to let Kosovo and Serbia ultimately join the EU is now rescinded in the wake of the French referendum, the continent's remarkable democratic transformation may yet exclude the Western Balkans just as the West's long and costly commitment could finally be paying off." This article focuses on the impact of the rejection by France and the Netherlands of the European Union (EU) constitution on regime change in Kosovo and Serbia and on the inevitable escalation of the sporadic Serb-Albanian fights in Kosovo as a result of the rejection of the EU constitution. Elizabeth Pond is editor of the Foreign Policy Journal "Transatlantic Internationale Politik" and a contributing correspondent to the Washington Quarterly. Order Article
A18 - Faulty Promises: The U.S.-India Nuclear Deal
Perkovich, George
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Policy Outlook, September 2005, 14p.
Perkovich claims, that “the bold U.S.-India nuclear deal proposed by President Bush and Prime Minister Singh has exposed important faults in the global nonproliferation regime, in U.S. policy toward India, and in Indian nuclear policy. Unfortunately, the deal was developed so secretively and quickly that it contains major faults of its own.” The author discusses some approaches to fix these issues. George Perkovich is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Fulltext
A19 - Iran: Don't Trust an Abuser with Nukes
Holmes, Kim R.
The Heritage Foundation, WebMemo #824, August 26, 2005
The author, emphasizing that “ Iran itself is simply too untrustworthy to be trusted with nuclear weapons. Tehran supports international terrorism, flouts international law, and suppresses its own people with a relish and a thoroughness that are breathtaking.” He wonders, however, “whether the EU-3 negotiations are aimed more at keeping the United States from using force than actually disarming Iran. Could it be that some European governments are becoming resigned to the fact that Iran will someday acquire nuclear weapons?” Kim R. Holmes, Heritage Foundation. Fulltext A20 - Iran’ s Bomb: A Crisis Deferred?
Michael Donovan
Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Summer 2005, v29, #2, pp27-41
"Michael Donovan explains how the United States is uniquely qualified to do what the Europeans wish they could do-stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons without resorting to military force." While it may already be too late to deter Iran from its nuclear path—if,
indeed, there is still time left—immediate action is required. The United States and Europe must closely coordinate to present Iran with a menu of incentives and penalties that will encourage moderate behavior. In the end, however, only the United States can bring to the table the economic and security guarantees that might provide the basis for a permanent settlement to the nuclear dispute. Iran will eventually enter the nuclear club of nations, but the United States can help to ensure it does so as a peaceful member. Even with Washington’s participation in the process, success is far from certain. However, without it, failure seems assured. Fulltext
A21 - The Final Draft of the Iraqi Constitution: Analysis & Commentary
Brown, Nathan
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, September 8, 2005, 16p.
”Nathan Brown offers an article-by-article commentary on the proposed Iraqi constitution, exploring how it is likely to lead to a loose confederation rather than a tight federal structure and how its rights provisions are far less revolutionary than has been claimed.“ Nathan Brown is senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Fulltext
A22 - The New Iraqi Constitution
David B. Rivkin, Jr.; Casey, Lee A.
The Heritage Foundation, September 16, 2005, Backgrounder #1879, online edition
The authors believe that "although the document is not perfect, the text contains a number of jarring notes —- at least to American ears — - and leaves several important questions unanswered. However, this too is the way of constitutions. On balance, Iraq’s proposed constitution has much to recommend it and deserves the support of the American people." Both David B. Rivkin, Jr., and Lee A. Casey have served in a variety of legal and policy positions in the Reagan and George H. W. Bush Administrations and are members of the U.N. Sub-Commission on the Promotion and Protection of Human Rights. Mr. Rivkin is also a Visiting Fellow at the Nixon Center and a Contributing Editor for "National Review" and "The National Interest." Fulltext
A23 - How to Win in Iraq
Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr.
Foreign Affairs, September/October 2005
The author outlines a strategy in Iraq whereby U.S. forces would “concentrate on providing security and opportunity to the Iraqi people, thereby denying insurgents the popular support they need. Since the U.S. and Iraqi armies cannot guarantee security to all of Iraq simultaneously, they should start by focusing on certain key areas and then, over time, broadening the effort… Such a strategy would have a good chance of success. But it would require a protracted commitment of U.S. resources, a willingness to risk more casualties in the short term, and an enduring U.S. presence in Iraq, albeit at far lower force levels than are engaged at present. “ Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. is Executive Director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments and Distinguished Visiting Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University. Fulltext
A24 - Al-Qaeda Agonistes
Holmes, Kim R.
American Heritage Foundation, October 14, 2005, WebMemo 882,online edition”
On the eve of the vote on a new constitution, new evidence suggests that al-Qaeda's presence in Iraq may be in trouble. As Kim Holmes explains, an intercepted letter from Osama bin Laden's deputy to the leader of al-Qaeda's Iraq faction reveals that serious divisions exist in al-Qaeda's leadership and that the group's brutal tactics in Iraq are alienating Muslims in Iraq and throughout the world.” Kim R. Holmes, Ph.D., is Vice President of Foreign and Defense Policy and Director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation. Fulltext
A25 -The Strategic Implications of Political Liberalization and Democratization in the Middle East
Zambelis, Chris
Parameters, Autumn 2005, v35, #3; pp87-103
"The expansion of democracy in Europe, Latin America, and East Asia over the last 30 years has spurred extensive debate on the internal and external factors that facilitate political reform. In this context, many observers view the greater Middle East and Islamic world as an anomaly in that authoritarian rule continues to dominate, albeit in varying degrees. Here, Zambelis examines the long-term strategic implications of a democratic Middle East and its impact on US interests, concluding that dramatic changes in the political and foreign policy orientation of many of our Middle Eastern allies may not result in what America really wants or needs." Chris Zambelis is a policy analyst with the Strategic Assessment Center of Hicks and Associates, Inc., a subsidiary of Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC). Fulltext
A26 - Among Arab Reformers
Muravchik, Joshua
Commentary, September 2005, v120, #2, pp45-53
"It was the challenge of Islamist terrorism that impelled George W. Bush to jettison, as he put it, 60 years of American policy emphasizing stability as our key goal in the Middle East in favor of a policy emphasizing freedom and democracy. The theory behind this is that, just as democracies are less likely to initiate wars, so they will be less likely to give rise to terrorism. Bush's approach, which has given rise to American military action in Iraq and political interventions elsewhere, has attracted its share of criticism. Among their many points, skeptics ask whether there are really any native democrats to be found in the Middle East who could be the backbone of a new political order." In this article the author reviews his encounters and talks with reformist intellectuals and activists in the region. Joshua Muravchik is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and a frequent contributor to Commentary. Fulltext
A27 - Inside Multilateralism: The Six-Party Talks
John S. Park
Washington Quarterly, Fall 2005, v28, #4, online edition
This article uses a case study approach to examine the conjecture-based assessments in Asia and the United States of the drivers and directions of the approaches of the six principal players — North Korea, the United States, South Korea, China, Japan, and Russia - Involved in negotiating a resolution to the North Korean nuclear crisis. Despite diplomatic efforts to facilitate the negotiations, domestic policy constraints, differing priorities, and conflicting historical analogies have brought differing perspectives to the multilateral negotiating table. John S. Park is a fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (BCSIA) at Harvard University. He is currently project leader of the North Korea Analysis Group, a Managing the Atom Project working group at BCSIA. Fulltext
A28 - The Fallout of Nuclear North Korea
Scobell, Andrew; Chambers, Michael
Current History, September 2005, v104, #683, pp289-294
The authors outline Pyongyang's efforts to become a nuclear power. North Korea has possessed chemical and biological weapons for at least several decades and they have pursued a nuclear program for almost 50 years. The authors argue that Pyongyang is not doing this to extract economic concessions, but because they see nuclear weapons as the way to control their own destiny. The author displays two possible routes that North Korea could take to become a nuclear power. In the first, described as the "striptease" approach, Pyongyang continues to gradually reveal pieces of its nuclear program. This approach is effective because it creates divisions among the countries involved in the multilateral talks -- the U.S. would seek sanctions before the entire program had been revealed, but China and South Korea would resist that request. The other approach would be to simply test a nuclear bomb and end the debate immediately -- but this tactic would not be effective it would immediately unite all the members of the multilateral talks against Pyongyang. The authors conclude that North Korea will probably continue to use their "striptease" approach. Andrew Scobell is an associate research professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College. Michael R. Chambers is an associate professor of political science at Indiana State University. Order Article
A29 - Forcing Choices: Testing the Transformation of Hamas
Malka, Haim
Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2005, v28, #4, pp37-53
” Regardless of what happens in future Palestinian parliamentary elections, Hamas has already won a historic victory. The organization, whose name is an acronym for “the Islamic Resistance Movement,” enjoyed tremendous success in municipal elections, and its readiness to participate on the national level constitutes nothing less than an earthquake in Palestinian politics, signaling the clear end of one-party rule. For a movement that has morphed from a militant organization into a political party in less than a generation, Hamas’s participation on the national level is evidence of the organization’s adaptability and durability within Palestinian society and politics.” Haim Malka is a fellow with the Middle East Program at CSIS. Order Article
A30 - Our Man in Moscow
Petro, Nicolai N.; Rahr, Alexander
Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Summer 2005, v29, #2, pp6-12
"Two radically divergent views of Russia have emerged in the West. The business community has, by and large, applauded the modernization of the Russian economy under President Vladimir Putin, including the opening of lucrative new markets for Western investment and the application of more uniform rules. Meanwhile, Western intellectuals and media pundits contend that Putin has abandoned democracy, centralized political authority, suppressed private enterprise, and muzzled the press." While many in the West view Putin as steering his country toward dictatorship, the authors contend that the Kremlin leader is best understood as a consummate pragmatist, whose success is strategically vital to the West." Alexander Rahr is Program Director of the Körber-Center for Russian and CIS affairs at the German Council on Foreign Relations and coordinator of the EU-Russia Forum. Nicolai N. Petro is Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.
Fulltext
A31 - Nuclear Arms Control: The U.S.-Russian Agenda
Woolf, Amy F.
The Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service, CRS Issue Brief for Congress, IB98030, updated August 8, 2005, 19p.
“Although arms control negotiations are not as important to the U.S.-Russian relationship as they were to the U.S.-Soviet relationship during the Cold War, the United States and Russia continue to implement existing nuclear arms control agreements and to pursue negotiations on further reductions in their strategic offensive weapons and clarifications for the limits on ballistic missile defenses. This issue brief summarizes the contents of these agreements and tracks progress in their ratification and implementation.” Amy F. Woolf, Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division, Congressional Research Service. Fulltext
South Korea
A32 - South Korea’s Squeeze Play
Snyder, Scott
Washington Quarterly, Fall 2005, v28, #4
”South Korea is the neighbor of North Korea with the most to lose if diplomacy fails and current tensions escalate to military conflict. Although President Roh Moo-hyun’s administration often seems paralyzed and bewildered, the stakes involved and the pressure on Seoul to effectively influence the situation could not be higher. Nevertheless, under certain circumstances, South Korean policy decisions may very well still help determine the outcome of the current stalemate. As an independent actor, Seoul’s options are almost nonexistent, as it has been and remains trapped between its obligations to the bilateral alliance with the United States and its efforts to improve relations with North Korea. Nevertheless, the Republic of Korea (ROK) may choose to play a crucial role as an honest broker, both on its own and through enhanced cooperation with China, by enticing, advising, and cajoling its alliance partner in Washington to help resolve the North Korean nuclear issue.” Scott Snyder is a senior associate at the Asia Foundation and the Pacific Forum/CSIS. Order Article
|
