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International Security

December 2005

Foreign Policy | Arms Control | Defense Policy | Terrorism | United Nations

Countries/Regions: Afghanistan | Africa | Balkans | China | Iran | Iraq | North Korea | Turkey

Foreign Policy

A1 - America's Place in the World 2005: An Investigation of the Attitudes of American Opinion Leaders and the American Public about International Affairs
Pew Research Center for the People & the Press in association with the Council on Foreign Relations. November 2005, 112p
"Produced in collaboration with the Council on Foreign Relations, this quadrennial study examines the foreign policy attitudes of the U.S. general public and U.S. opinion leaders -- state and local government officials; security and foreign affairs experts; military officers; news media, university, think tank, and religious leaders; and scientists and engineers. Conducted from September 5 to October 31, 2005, the survey reflects the major changes in the world that have occurred since the previous poll was taken just prior to the 9/11 attacks. Principal findings indicate that, preoccupied with war abroad and growing problems at home, U.S. opinion leaders and the general public are taking a decidedly cautious view of America's place in the world." [Note: Contains copyrighted material.] Fulltext

Arms Control

A2 - Nuclear Nonproliferation: IAEA Has Strengthened Its Safeguards and Nuclear Security Programs, but Weaknesses Need to Be Addressed
United States Government Accountability Office, Report to Congressional Requesters, October 7, 2005, 84p
"The International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) safeguards system has been a cornerstone of U.S. efforts to prevent nuclear weapons proliferation since the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was adopted in 1970. IAEA has strengthened its safeguards system and increased efforts to combat nuclear terrorism by helping countries secure nuclear and radioactive material and facilities. This report identifies the steps IAEA has taken to strengthen safeguards, assesses the challenges in implementing strengthened safeguards, identifies U.S. financial support for safeguards, and describes IAEA's efforts to help secure nuclear material and facilities." Fulltext

A3 - 2005 Carnegie International Non-Proliferation Conference
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, November 7-8, 2005.
Featuring this year's Nobel Peace Prize Winner and IAEA Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei as well as other high ranking nonproliferation experts, the conference attracted more than 800 participants from all over the world. Among the issues discussed were hot topics like Iran's nuclear program, terrorism involving nuclear materials and the North Korea negotiations. The conference website includes transcripts of the breakout panels, panel descriptions, summaries, prepared remarks and powerpoint presentations as well as pictures and audio files. Fulltext

A4 - The Wrath of Khan
Langewiesche, William
The Atlantic Monthly, November 2005, v296, #4, pp62-85
Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is a source of great national pride, and Abdul Qadeer Khan, the scientist who built up the country's nuclear-weapons program, is regarded as a national hero. Langewiesche writes that A.Q. Khan had "become something of a demigod" in Pakistan, wealthy and with an outsize ego to match, openly flaunting his prominence and giving large amounts of money to foundations and charities. His downfall began in January 2004, when the U.S. intercepted a German ship, the BBC China, carrying nuclear materials bound for Libya, and Libya, subsequently renouncing its nuclear ambitions, named the Khan Research Laboratories as the supplier. Pakistani Pres. Pervez Musharraf rebuked Khan, who publicly apologized and was then put under indefinite house arrest. Langewiesche extensively chronicles the rise of A.Q. Khan in this first of two articles on Pakistan's nuclear program and its role in the spread of nuclear technology." William Langewiesche is a national correspondent for The Atlantic. Fulltext

Defense Policy

A5 - Base Politics
Cooley, Alexander
Foreign Affairs; Nov/Dec 2005, v84, #6, pp79-92
"This article focuses on United States military bases in foreign countries. The author maintains that the U.S. should rethink its practice of setting up bases in nondemocratic countries because the practice does not promote liberalization in host states and sometimes can endanger U.S. security. The author argues that U.S. military planners are more interested in a base's utility than in changing or reforming the local political climate. In ignoring violations of democratic values in order to preserve foreign military base deals, the U.S. exposes itself to charges of hypocrisy and opportunism." Alexander Cooley is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia University, and was a Transatlantic Fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States in 2004-5. Fulltext

A6 - When Government Regulations Hinder Security: Shoulder-Fired Missile Defenses

Kochems, Alane & Gentilli, David G.
Heritage Foundation Backgrounder #1902, December 7, 2005. 4p
The authors describe the legal and political obstacles that hinder the development of countermeasures against shoulder-fired missiles. Shoulder-fired missiles or MANPADS pose a threat not only to military but also to civilian aircraft. The authors estimate that these anti-aircraft missiles were responsible for having "brought down 25 civilian aircraft, killing more than 600 people." They argue that "...minor modifications of legislation and export regulations, an improved process for export controls, and improved technology integrated into an overall system will serve American homeland security interests while preventing military technology from falling into the wrong hands." Alane Kochems is a Policy Analyst for National Security and David D. Gentilli is a Research Assistant in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies at The Heritage Foundation. Fulltext

A7 - Tomorrow's Air Warfare: A German Perspective on the Way Ahead
Graefe, Frank
Air & Space Power Journal, Fall 2005, v19, #3, pp39-44
How can NATO members keep up with US technological superiority so that the NATO alliance remains a functioning cooperation? Drawing on the U.S. military strategic-policy during "Operation Iraqi Freedom", the author examines several components, mainly concerning aircrafts, of this "high-tech war". In his conclusion, Graefe argues that "...we have crossed the threshold of a new form of warfare. A nation that does not follow this development will find itself unable to meet the standards required of a coalition partner in future wars. By implementing the NATO Response Force, the alliance has demonstrated its understanding of this message. NATO seriously approaches transformation by reorganizing alliance structures, armed forces, and capabilities. Doing so will serve to gradually close the often quoted transatlantic gap in the fields of technology and the conduct of operations, thus strengthening NATO as the key transatlantic link." Lt Col Frank M. Graefe is commander, 2nd Squadron, Fighter Wing 71 "Richthofen," Wittmund Air Base, Germany. Fulltext

Terrorism

A8 - Passive Sponsors of Terrorism
Byman, Daniel L.
Survival, Winter 2005, v47, #4, pp117-144
?Open and active state sponsorship of terrorism is blessedly rare, and it has decreased since the end of the Cold War. Yet this lack of open support does not necessarily diminish the important role that states play in fostering or hindering terrorism. At times, the greatest contribution a state can make to a terrorist's cause is by not acting. A border not policed, a blind eye turned to fundraising, or even the toleration of recruitment all help terrorists build their organisations, conduct operations and survive... Despite the importance of what I call 'passive sponsors' of terrorism, we lack any comprehensive understanding of their role. As a result, attention has been paid almost exclusively to active sponsors, and we often try to solve the problem of passive support with the same instruments we use against active sponsors, leading to the failure of coercion and, at times, making the problem worse." Daniel L. Byman, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy. Fulltext

United Nations

A9 - Grand Goals, Modest Results: The UN in Search of Reform
Laurenti, Jeffrey
Current History, December 2005, v104, #686, pp431-437
"Washington resists linking the political and military issues that Americans understand as "security" with the economic and social issues arising from the deep poverty prevalent in four-fifths of the world's nations. Others think the linkage is obvious." In this article Laurenti analyses the United States' view on the UN and its efforts to promote global peace against the backdrop of the recent UN summit. He points to the conflict between international law and national power as well as Washington's tendency to play down the UN's role. Ultimately, however, the U.S. leadership recognizes the value of the UN system institutions, says Laurenti. Jeffrey Laurenti is a senior fellow in international affairs at the century Foundation in New York. Order Article

A10 - The Imperative for Action: An Update of the Report of the Task Force on American Interests and UN Reform
United States Institute of Peace. December 16, 2005. 49p
"In December 2004, Congress directed the United States Institute of Peace to establish a bipartisan Task Force on the United Nations. The most important finding of a consensus report that was published in June 2005 was "the firm belief that an effective United Nations is in America's interests." Following the UN summit in September, the Task Force was reconvened to assess "what was achieved, what was not, and what should be done next." The progress report, like the underlying work of the Task Force, is divided into five sections: human rights and genocide; management reform; weapons of mass destruction proliferation; preventing and ending conflicts; and development and humanitarian assistance. The United States Institute of Peace is an independent, nonpartisan federal institution created by Congress to promote the prevention, management, and peaceful resolution of international conflicts. Fulltext

Countries/Regions:

Afghanistan

A11 - Afghanistan: When Counternarcotics Undermines Counterterrorism
Felbab-Brown, Vanda
Washington Quarterly, Autumn 2005, v28, #4, pp56-72
"A huge explosion of opium poppy cultivation since the fall of the Taliban has led President Hamid Karzai, the United States, and the United Kingdom - the lead nation responsible for counternarcotics activity in Afghanistan under the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) framework - as well as major international organizations to declare that drugs now constitute the greatest threat to Afghanistan's democratic consolidation and economic development...Paradoxically, counternarcotics efforts in Afghanistan frequently complicate counterterrorism and counterinsurgency objectives and can even undermine democratization... Counternarcotics strategy should concentrate instead on strengthening the Afghan state's capacity." Vanda Felbab-Brown is a Ph.D. candidate in political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a fellow at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Fulltext

Africa

A12 - More than Humanitarianism: A Strategic U.S. Approach Toward Africa
Lake, Anthony and Christine Todd Whitman, Task Force Co-Chairs
Council on Foreign Relations, Report of an Independent Task Force. December 4, 2005, 163p.
The Council on Foreign Relations Independent Task Force was established to examine U.S. policy on Africa. The Task Force's main finding is that U.S. policy toward Africa should change to reflect Africa's growing strategic importance. Washington should maintain its historic and principled humanitarian concerns, while broadening the basis for U.S. engagement on the continent. The Task Force also recommends that the United States advance a policy to help 'integrate Africa more fully into the global economy,' so that the advantages of globalization no longer bypass the continent. Fulltext

A13 - Transforming Globalization and Security: Africa and America Post-9/11
Carmody, Padraig
Africa Today, Fall 2005, v52, #1, pp96-120
"Africa has traditionally had a marginal and decreasing role in international affairs. Since the attacks of 11 September 2001, however, the continent has taken center stage in the emerging security discourse, and access to African oil is now a strategic priority for the United States, which now trades more with Africa than Central Europe and the former Soviet Union combined. This fact, and the potential threat from global terrorism, are reflected in emerging security regimes on the continent, bolstered by increased U.S. military assistance. Thus, global forces have penetrated not only African economic policymaking, but also security; however, increased military assistance and the suppression of human rights are further distancing society from the African state, worsening long-term instability and jeopardizing U.S. access to African oil...The paper argues that globalization is being transformed through securitization, but that this is unlikely to be sustainable." Padraig Carmody is lecturer in Geography, St. Patrick's College, Dublin City University. Fulltext

Balkans

A14 - Independence for Kosovo
Kupchan, Charles A.
Foreign Affairs; Nov/Dec2005, v84, # 6, pp14-20
"The article argues for Kosovo's independence from Serbia. Kosovo has been under international trusteeship since the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's intervention in the civil war of 1998. Serbs insist that Kosovo remain under Serbian sovereignty. However, relations between the Albanian majority and the Serbian minority have reached a state of crisis. The author argues that the formal separation of Kosovo from Serbia offers the best hope for rebuilding relations among ethnic Albanians and Serbs." Charles A. Kupchan is Professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University and Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Fulltext

A15 - Kosovo: Mission Not Yet Accomplished
Sletzinger , Martin C, Gelazis, Nida
The Wilson Quarterly, Autumn 2005, v29, #4, pp35-42
"Six years ago, a US-led military intervention ended ethnic violence in Kosovo. International peacekeepers have patrolled the province ever since. Now Kosovo has reached a turning point. Without America's continued leadership, Kosovo could reignite, spreading new conflict throughout the Balkans." The authors point to the US' popularity and "unique position of trust" in the Balkans when arguing for its continued involvement in Kosovo's future. In the Balkans the U.S. is viewed like they wantto be seen: as the guardians of human rights and security. Martin C. Sletzinger is director and Nida Gulazis is program associate of the Wilson Center's East European Studies Program. Fulltext

China


A16 - Strategic Hedging and the Future of Asia-Pacific Stability
Medeiros, Evan S.
Washington Quarterly, Winter 2005-06, v29, #1, p145-167, 23p
"Because Washington and Beijing are both hedging their security bets about the other at precisely the time that the East Asian regional order is being redefined, reciprocal hedging today could precipitate a shift toward rivalry and regional instability unless it is carefully managed." Evan S. Medeiros is a political scientist at the RAND Corporation, based in Washington, D.C. Fulltext

Iran

A17 - The Continuing Evolution of Iran's Military Doctrine
Ward, Stephen R.
The Middle East Journal, Autumn 2005, v59, #4, pp559-577
"Iran's military has tried to develop concepts for warfighting suitable for deterring the United States while dealing with a complex security environment and numerous constraints on its military power. The military's key task has been to align doctrine with service capabilities. This article examines the path of Iran's doctrinal developments and highlights the advantages and problems in Iran's approach and its seeming over-reliance on missile-based deterrence and the threat of unconventional and proxy war." Steven R. Ward is a senior Middle East analyst for the US government. He is a Lieutenant Colonel, US Army Reserve (retired) and has served numerous tours with the US Central Command. Fulltext

Iraq

A18 - The Impact of the Iraqi Election: A Working Analysis
Cordesmann, Anthony H.
Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), December 21, 2005. 33p
"It may be the fall of 2006 before the full impact of the December 15, 2005 election in Iraq is clear. It will be months before the full nature of the new political structure it has created has been negotiated and every element of the new government is in place. There is still some risk that significant numbers of Sunnis will not accept the result, or that some combination of the insurgency and tension between Sunni and Shi'ite may divide the country... Nevertheless, the fact Iraq has held a real election for a sovereign government with a legislature with a four-year tenure is an important achievement. In spite of complaints by some of the leading parties, the election seems to have only had a limited number of major glitches, and occurred only limited violence. Sunnis did participate in large numbers, and the overall turn out was relatively high. Everything depends on whether this success can be turned into a more lasting political process. Anthony H. Cordesmann, CSIS. Fulltext

A19 - Iraq: Learning the Lessons of Vietnam
Laird, Melvin R.
Foreign Affairs; Nov/Dec 2005, v 84, #6, pp22-43
As Secretary of Defense under U.S. President Richard Nixon during the Vietnam War, the author was in charge of withdrawing U.S. troops from Vietnam. He applies the lessons learned from the U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War to the handling of the Iraq War. He argues that if the U.S. had continued to fund its allies in Vietnam after it withdrew its troops, the allies would have won the war. Success in Iraq, therefore, depends on a commitment of long-term assistance from the United States. The U.S. should foster competence among the Iraqi security forces and then withdraw U.S. troops. The task in Iraq involves nation-building and the establishment of a legitimate government. Melvin R. Laird was Secretary of Defense from 1969 to 1973, Counselor to the President for Domestic Affairs from 1973 to 1974, and a member of the House of Representatives from 1952 to 1969. He currently serves as Senior Counselor for National and International Affairs at the Reader's Digest Association. Fulltext

A20 - The Iraq Syndrome
Mueller, John
Foreign Affairs; Nov/Dec2005, v84, # 6, pp44-54
"American troops have been sent into harm's way many times since 1945, but in only three cases--Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq--have they been drawn into sustained ground combat and suffered more than 300 deaths in action. American public opinion became a key factor in all three wars, and in each one there has been a simple association: as casualties mount, support decreases. Broad enthusiasm at the outset invariably erodes. The only thing remarkable about the current war in Iraq is how precipitously American public support has dropped off. Casualty for casualty, support has declined far more quickly than it did during either the Korean War or the Vietnam War. In the wake of the wars in Korea and Vietnam, the American public developed a strong aversion to embarking on such ventures again. A similar sentiment--an "Iraq syndrome"--seems to be developing now, and it will have important consequences for U.S. foreign policy for years after the last American battalion leaves Iraqi soil. John Mueller is Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University. Fulltext

A21 -
Clear and Fold
Kaplan, Lawrence
New Republic; December 19, /2005, v233, #25, pp12-15
"The U.S. has won every battle in Iraq, but the author claims if operations do nothing to further a strategic goal, an army can win every battle and still lose the war. He maintains that the problem with the Army's approach to Iraq has been confusion regarding the utility of force as an instrument of counterinsurgency, and discusses the revised U.S. "clear and hold" strategy which focuses on establishing and maintaining security in areas and already cleared of insurgents." Lawrence F. Kaplan is senior editor at The New Republic. He writes about U.S. foreign policy and international affairs for the New Republic as well as for numerous other publications. Fulltext

A22 - Iraq War and Lessons for Counterinsurgency
Cordesmann, Anthony H.
Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), December 9, 2005. 17p
" As for the lessons of the Iraqi insurgency to date, one is the need for ruthless objectivity and to accept the political and military complexity of counterinsurgency... There is a great deal to be learned from past wars if the lessons are carefully chosen and adapted as potential insights into a new conflict rather than transferable paradigms. The Iraq War, however, is not the Afghan War, much less Mao, Malaysia, Vietnam, Northern Ireland, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There is nothing to be gained from efforts to revive the same old tactical and technical solutions, without remembering past failures. "Oil spots," "hearts and minds," "Special Forces," walls and barriers, and sensor nets are just a few examples of such efforts that have been applied to the Iraq War." Anthony H. Cordesmann, CSIS. Fulltext

A23 - Why Iraq Has No Army
Fallows, James
The Atlantic, December 2005, v296, # 5, pp60-77
"An orderly exit from Iraq depends on the development of a viable Iraqi security force, but the Iraqis aren't even close. The Bush administration doesn't take the problem seriously - and it never has... The crucial need to improve security and order in Iraq puts the United States in an impossible position. It can't honorably leave Iraq - as opposed to simply evacuating Saigon-style - so long as its military must provide most of the manpower, weaponry, intelligence systems, and strategies being used against the insurgency. But it can't sensibly stay when the very presence of its troops is a worsening irritant to the Iraqi public and a rallying point for nationalist opponents - to say nothing of the growing pressure in the United States for withdrawal. Therefore one question now trumps others in America's Iraq policy: whether the United States can foster the development of viable Iraqi security forces, both military and police units, to preserve order in a new Iraqi state." James Fallows is a national correspondent for The Atlantic. Fulltext

A24 - Iraq's Resilient Minority
Cockburn, Andrew
Smithsonian, December 2005, v36, #9, pp42-55
"Victims of genocide under Saddam Hussein, Iraq's Kurds have put aside old rivalries to consolidate their political power in the war-torn nation... Kurds like to tell people that they are the largest nation in the world without a state of their own. There are roughly 25 million of them, predominantly non-Arab Muslims practicing a tolerant variant of Islam. Most live in the region where Iraq, Turkey and Iran meet... Although the United States helped free the Kurds from Saddam's rule, it now discourages Kurdish independence to preserve Iraqi unity and to avoid offending America's allies in Turkey. 'It's hard for our people to understand the difficulties we face, says Falah Mustafa Bakir, minister of state in the Kurdish Regional Government. 'None of our neighbors are happy with a strong Kurdistan. When the foreign ministers of Turkey, Iran and Syria, who in reality hate each other, get together, at least they can agree about the 'problem' of Kurdistan.'" Andrew Cockburn regularly covers the Middle East. Fulltext

A25 - Precedents, Variables, nd Options In Planning U.S. Military Disengagement Strategy From Iraq
Terrill, W. Andrew; Crane, Conrad C.
United States Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute (SSI). October 2005, 68p.
The authors examine "previous instances of U.S. military occupation of foreign countries and the difficulty of maintaining domestic support for such operations. While the authors view the empowerment of a viable Iraqi central government and a security force to defend its authority as vital to the future of that country, they also suggest that there are severe constraints on the United States' potential to sustain its military presence at the current level. They conclude that the United States must be prepared to withdraw from Iraq under non-optimal conditions, and that the chief U.S. goal should be to devise an exit strategy for Iraq that focuses on bolstering Iraqi government legitimacy. The authors strongly reject the idea of withdrawing from Iraq according to a formal timetable." W. Andrew Terrill, Middle East specialist at the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI). Conrad C.Crane, Director of the U.S. Army Military History Institute. Fulltext

A26 - Back From the Brink: A Strategy for Iraq: What Would An Actual Strategy for Victory in Iraq Look Like?
Ottaway, Marina
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Policy Brief #43, November 2005, 8p.
"The approval of the Iraqi constitution in the October 15 referendum does not put Iraq on the path to stability and democracy but pushes it toward division into largely autonomous regions. And this new momentum is probably irreversible. Whether it will lead to a catastrophic descent into greater violence or even ethnic cleansing, or to a managed transformation into a loose federation of regions enjoying extreme autonomy, depends on whether it becomes possible for Sunni Arabs to form their own region, as Kurds already have and Shias are bound to do once the constitution is in effect. The central thrust of U.S. policy in Iraq must now be to help Sunnis organize an autonomous region and to convince Shias and Kurds that it is in their interest to make this possible. Paradoxically, announcing now a timetable for the inevitable withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq could give Washington additional leverage in influencing all sides to accept the necessary compromises." Marina Ottaway, senior associate in the Democracy and Rule of Law Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Fulltext

North Korea

A27 - The Six Party Talks and Beyond: Cooperative Threat Reduction and North Korea
A Report of the CSIS International Security Program

Wit, Joel S.; Jon Wolfsthal and Choong-suk Oh
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), December 2005. 92p
This report outlines how multilateral CTR (cooperative threat reduction) can play an important role in future efforts to eliminate the threat posed by North Korean weapons programs. Elimination of threats created by nuclear, missile and chemical/biological weapons will require a series of diplomatic agreements, perhaps stretching out over the next decade at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars. The Beijing Six-Party Talks represents the beginning of that effort, dealing with the immediate threat posed by Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program. Integrating cooperative threat reduction programs into those talks and any subsequent agreements would serve the interests of the United States and other participants in those negotiations as well as those of North Korea. Fulltext

turkey

A28 - Turkey's AKP: A Model "Muslim-Democratic" Party?
Tepe, Sultan
Journal of Democracy, Fall 2005, v16, #3, pp69-82
Turkey's democracy reached a turning point with the meteoric rise of the pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the 2002 election. Surprising many, the AKP has launched an aggressive reform process to meet the European Union's Copenhagen criteria. The AKP-led "quiet revolution" raises serious questions as to how the reforms will shape the future of Turkish democracy and what role Islam will play in it. Three areas in which the party's policies appear paradoxical are examined: its commitment to decentralization while curbing intra-party democracy, democratic reforms without civil society input, and party institutionalization without having formulated an enduring ideology. Sultan Tepe is assistant professor of political science at the University of Illinois-Chicago and a native of Istanbul. The following essay is based on field research that she has been conducting in Turkey with a grant from the United States Institute of Peace. Order Article

A29 - Turkish Accession to the European Union
Kubicek, Paul
World Affairs, Fall 2005, v168 #2, pp67-78.
"This article focuses on what Turkish membership and the debates over Turkish membership mean for Europe. The main issue is thus not whether Turkey will get in or whether Turkey possesses sufficient European credentials, but rather how inclusion of Turkey will transform Europe and what the debates over Turkey reveal about Europe's conception of its core values and identity. In the end, what argument will prevail? Clearly, in very obvious ways, Turkey is different than Europe and its inclusion will do more for diversity than any previous expansion. Although this is worrisome for some, one might need to recognize that the definition of Europe is not set in stone or defined by purely objective criteria, but is instead a social construction." Paul Kubicek is associate professor of political science at Oakland University, Michigan and has previously taught at Koç University and Bogaziçi University in Istanbul. Fulltext





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