| The Impact of an AIDS Vaccine
in Developing Countries: A New Model and Initial Results
Stover, John; Bollinger, Lori; Hecht, Robert; Williams, Clara; Roca, Eva
Health Affairs, July-August 2007, v26, #4, pp1147-1159
"A new model was developed to examine the potential
impacts of an AIDS vaccine in developing countries. The findings
suggest that even a modestly efficacious first-generation vaccine
could have a profound effect on the AIDS pandemic. A vaccine with
50 percent efficacy provided to 30 percent of the population would
reduce new annual infections by 34 percent (seventeen million infections
avoided) over fifteen years and result in substantial financial
savings. A more efficacious vaccine, combined with expanded delivery,
would do even more to control the pandemic. It therefore makes sense
to continue investing in AIDS vaccine research and development and
the eventual manufacture and widespread distribution of a vaccine."
John Stover is president of the
futures Institute in Glostonbury, Connecticut. Lori Bollinger is
its vice president. Robert Hecht is senior vice president, Public
Policy, at the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative (IAVT) in New
York City. Clara Williams is a senior analyst at IAVI; Eva Roca
was formerly a policy analyst there.
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H7/05-07 posted August 28, 2007
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