| How to Measure the War
Campbell, Jason; O'Hanlon, Michael E.; Shapiro, Jeremy
Policy Review, October/November 2009, #157, pp15-30
"How to tell if a counterinsurgency campaign is being won? Sizing the force correctly for a stabilization mission is a key ingredient - and it has been the subject of much discussion in the modern American debate. But in fact, there is no exact formula for sizing forces. Even if there were, getting the numbers right would hardly ensure success. Troops might not perform optimally if poorly prepared for the mission; the security environment might pose too many daunting challenges for even properly sized and trained forces to contend with; indigenous forces might not be up to the job of gradually accepting primary responsibility for their country's security themselves; and the politics of the country in question might not evolve in a favorable direction due to the actions of internal or external spoilers. So to know if we are being successful, we must also track and study results on the ground."
Jason Campbell and Jeremy Shapiro are the authors of the Brookings
Institution's Afghanistan Index. Campbell and Michael O'Hanlon author the
Iraq Index there and are beginning a Pakistan Index this fall.
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A16/05-09. Posted December 4, 2009
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