| Stopping Surprise Attacks: Thinking Smarter About Homeland Security
Carafano, James Jay Ph.D.; Cilluffo, Frank, Ph.D.; Weitz, Richard; Lane, Jan
The Heritage Foundation, backgrounder #2026, April 23, 2007, onlin edition, 5p
"According to the authors, it is long past
time for the federal government to develop an Office of Net Assessment
(ONA) capability within the DHS to provide the DHS Secretary and
ultimately the President with a comprehensive analysis of future
threats and capabilities to meet those threats... In the realm of
national security, net assessment takes on multiple complexities
and forecasts futures that conventional analyses or formal models
may overlook. The tools of net assessment for defense analyses combine
"scenarios, war games, trend analysis, and considered judgment."
The consistent thread among these methods is that they deal in speculation
about the unknown." James Jay Carafano, Ph.D., is
Assistant Director of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute
for International Studies and Senior Research Fellow for National
Security and Homeland Security in the Douglas and Sarah Allison
Center for Foreign Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation. Frank
J. Cilluffo is an Associate Vice President at The George Washington
University and Director of the Homeland Security Policy Institute.
Richard Weitz, Ph.D., is Senior Fellow and Director of Program Management
at the Hudson Institute. Jan Lane is Deputy Director of the Homeland
Security Policy Institute at The George Washington University.
Go to the article at:
http://www.heritage.org/Research/HomelandDefense/upload/bg_2026.pdf
C24/03-07. Posted May 12/07
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