| Posted May 21, 2010
Foreign Policy | Arms Control | Defense | Human Rights | Terrorism
Countries/Regions: Afghanistan | Africa | China | Iran | Iraq | Middle East | North Korea | Russia
The Foreign Policy of Barack Obama: Between Dreaming and Doing
Moens, Alexander; Barbee, Inu
Cicero Foundation Great Debate Paper, no.10/04, March 2010, online edition, 11p
"Barack Obama’s presidential character and decision style is dominated by three traits. He is intellectually curious and has a taste for philosophical reflection. His willingness to understand perspectives other than his own and his rejection of rigid ideology makes him lean towards relative rather than absolute values. Finally, Obama has a practical side which calls for pragmatism and compromise."
Alexander Moens is a professor of Political Science at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver and a senior fellow at the Fraser Institute in the Centre for Canadian-American Relations. Inu Barbee is a senior fellow at the Fraser Institute. Fulltext A1/02-10
Critical Issues for U.S. Foreign Policy: Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan
Burns, Nicholas R.
Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Winter 2010, v34, #1, pp5-12
The "Fletcher Forum" sat down with former Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs R. Nicholas Burns to discuss the foreign policy challenges currently facing the United States. Arguing that diplomacy is "the first line of offense for the U.S. government," Ambassador Burns expresses support for both President Obama’s decision to pursue negotiations with Iran as well as to send an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan.
R. Nicholas Burns is professor of the practice of diplomacy and international politics at the Harvard Kennedy School, as well as director of the Future of Diplomacy Project and faculty chair for the programs on the Middle East and on India and South Asia. Ambassador Burns served in the United States Foreign Service for twenty-seven years until his retirement in April 2008. He was under secretary of state for political affairs from 2005 to 2008, the State Department’s third-ranking official. Fulltext A2/02-10
The Continued Relevance of Realism in the Age of Obama: Plus Ca Change,
Plus C'est la Meme Chose
Thayer, Bradley
American Foreign Policy Interests, January-February 2010, v32, #1, pp1-4
"If this prediction of the foreign policy of the Obama administration proves to be true, President Obama will be judged to be an exemplar of realism. So will the sustainability of realism in the formulation and practice of American foreign policymaking where it has informed and driven policy for more than two hundred years."
Bradley Thayer is an associate professor of defense and strategic studies, at the Missouri State University. Order article A3/02-10
Monitoring and Verification in Arms Control
Woolf, Amy F.
Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report for Congress, April 21, 2010, online edition, 27p (PDF)
"The United States and Russia signed a new START Treaty on April 8, 2010. Many analysts, both in the United States and Russia, supported negotiations on a new treaty so that the two sides could continue to implement parts of the complex monitoring and verification regime in the 1991 START Treaty. This regime was designed to build confidence in compliance with the START and to provide transparency and cooperation during the treaty’s implementation. The verification regime in the new START Treaty differs in some respects from the regime in START. These differences reflect an interest in reducing the cost and complexity of the regime, updating it to account for changes in the relationship between the United States and Russia, and tailoring it to address the monitoring and verification complexities presented by the new limits in the new treaty. The verification regime is likely to receive scrutiny in both the Senate, which will ultimately vote on whether to consent to ratification, and the public."
Amy F. Wolf is a specialist in Nuclear Weapons Policy at CRS. Fulltext A4/02-10
Strengthen the Nonproliferation Bargain
Kimball, Daryll G.
Arms Control Today, May 2010, online edition
"Once again the nuclear nonproliferation system is facing a crisis of confidence. New measures to update and strengthen the 1968 nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) are needed. The May 2010 treaty review conference provides an important opportunity for the pact’s 189 members to adopt a balanced action plan to improve nuclear safeguards, guard against treaty withdrawal, accelerate progress on disarmament, and address regional proliferation challenges."
Daryl G. Kimball is the executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington. Fulltext A5/02-10
- New START: Good News for U.S. Security
Pifer, Steven
Arms Control Today, May 2010, online edition
This article describes New START, its principal numerical limits, its monitoring measures, and the ways in which it will advance U.S. national security interests.
Steven Pifer is a senior fellow and director of the Arms Control Initiative at the Brookings Institution Fulltext A5/02-10
- A New Nuclear Posture
Halperin, Morton H.
Arms Control Today, May 2010, online edition
"The recently completed Nuclear Posture Review contains important shifts in U.S. policy on using nuclear weapons and preventing their use."
Morton H. Halperin is a senior advisor to the Open Society Institute
Order article A5a/02-10
- Obama’s NPR: Transitional, Not Transformational
Kimball, Daryl G; Thielmann, Greg
Arms Control Today, May 2010, online edition
"Although it makes some worthwhile changes, the Nuclear Posture Review is not as different from its predecessors as it could or should be."
Daryl G. Kimball is the executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington. Greg Thielmann has joined the organization as a senior fellow to lead a new research-oriented "Realistic Threat Assessment and Response Project.Order article A5b/02-10
- A Flawed and Dangerous U.S. Missile Defense Plan
Lewis, George N.; Postol, Theodore A.
Arms Control Today, May 2010, online edition
"The Obama administration’s missile defense policy rests on unsupported technical assumptions and could lead to a foreign policy disaster."
George N. Lewis is a senior research associate at Cornell University. Theodore Postol is professor of science, Technology and National Security Policy in the Program in Science, Technology, and Society at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Order article A5c/02-10
Nuclear Weapon-Free Zones as a New Deterrent?
Sawers, Janene
United States Institute of Peace, April 2010, online edition, 5p
"Parties to Nuclear-Weapon Free Zones continually point out that the zones are created for security reasons, not for moral righteousness or in the spirit of idealism. The establishment of zones is a new security posture that endeavors to keep nuclear weapons away from their areas of the world. They function under the assumption that more nuclear weapons make the world inherently less safe and demonstrate that countries do not need nuclear weapons to be safe from attack."
Janene Sawers is a senior program assistant with the Jennings Randolph Fellowship Program for International Peace.Fulltext A6/02-10
The Illogic of Zero
Tertrais, Bruno
Washington Quarterly, April 2010, v33, #2, pp125-138
"Throughout 2009, proponents of the abolition of nuclear weapons were unlucky. Almost each time they tried to make their case on the international scene, the real world came to haunt them. On April 5, 2009, North Korea tested a long-range missile just a few hours before President Barack Obama delivered a major speech in Prague, disclosing his vision of a nuclear- weapons- free world. On May 25, Pyongyang proceeded with a second nuclear test, a few days after signatories of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) had applauded the new U.S. vision in a preparatory meeting for the 2010 NPT Review Conference in New York. And on September 21, Iran officially informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of the existence of a heretofore secret nuclear enrichment facility in Qom, just three days before a planned historic summit of the UN Security Council in Washington, D.C."
Bruno Tertrais is a senior research fellow at the Foundation pour la Recherche Strategique in Paris, France, and a member of the editorial board of The Washington Quarterly. Fulltext A7/02-10
Helping Others Defend Themselves: The Future of U.S. Security Assistance
Gates, Robert
Foreign Affairs, May/June 2010, v89, #3, pp2-6
The article discusses the future of U.S. security assistance. The author states that the main security challenge is dealing with states that cannot adequately govern themselves or secure their own territory. He argues that the U.S. needs to help other countries defend themselves or fight alongside U.S. forces by providing them with equipment, training, or other forms of security assistance. The contemporary global security environment is examined. Subjects of the article also include U.S. dealings with Afghanistan and Pakistan, institutional changes at the U.S. Pentagon, and what is called a "dual key" decision-making process by the U.S. Defense Department.
Robert M. Gates is U.S. Secretary of Defense.. Fulltext A8/02-10
What’s the Matter with Being a Strategist (Now)?
Moore, Charles P.
Parameters, Winter 2009-10, v39, #4, pp5-19
"American strategic competence is in decline. Twenty years after victory in the Cold War, a victory brought about by the shrewd use of state power and alliances while ably balancing international and domestic pressures, the United States now is struggling to find the right balance of military force and other forms of power in its current wars, while peering into an uncertain future."
Lieutenant Colonel Charles P. Moore is Director of the Basic Strategic Art Program at the US Army War College and has been an Army strategist since 2002. Fulltext A9/02-10
The Last Legions
Copley, Gregory R.
Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, 2010, v38, #3, pp13-16
"The nature of warfare is changing, even as we dwell on (and invest in) major defense programs which owe their origins to the strategic and military thinking of eras now fading or past. The framework, however, is increasingly complex, and more tied to a total social context than ever before. The craft of soldiering and power has moved decisively beyond the formal military equation and has become - as this author has said repeatedly for some years - a "whole of society" affair. That does not mean that history has no lessons for us. On the contrary, the lessons and progressions of history are more critical now than ever in understanding the future."
Gregory R. Copley is an editor at Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy. Fulltext A10/02-10
The News Rules of War
Arquilla, John
Foreign Policy, March/April, 2010, pp60-69
"Every day, the US military spends $1.75 billion, much of it on big ships, big guns, and big battalions that are not only not needed to win the wars of the present, but are sure to be the wrong approach to waging the wars of the future. What's missing most of all from the US military's arsenal is a deep understanding of networking, the loose but lively interconnection between people that creates and brings a new kind of collective intelligence, power, and purpose to bear -- for good and ill. US military leaders have not sufficiently grasped that even quite small units -- like a platoon of 50 or so soldiers -- can wield great power when connected to others, especially friendly indigenous forces, and when networking closely with even a handful of attack aircraft."
John Arquilla is professor of defense analysis at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California. Fulltext A11/02-10
And Justice for All
Haugen, Gary; Boutros, Victor
Foreign Affairs, May/June 2010, v89, #3, pp51-63
"For a poor person in the developing world, the struggle for human rights is not an abstract fight over political freedoms or over the prosecution of large-scale war crimes but a matter of daily survival. Efforts by the modern human rights movement over the last 60 years have contributed to the criminalization of such abuses in nearly every country. Without functioning public justice systems to deliver the protections of the law to the poor, the legal reforms of the modern human rights movement rarely improve the lives of those who need them most. In a June 2008 report, the United Nations estimated that four billion people live outside the protection of the rule of law. Few, if any, international human rights or development organizations focus on building public justice systems that work for the poor. The modern human rights movement must enter into a new era, shifting its focus from legal reform to law enforcement."
Gary Haugen is president and CEO of International Justice Mission. Victor Boutros is a federal prosecutor in the Civil Rights Division of the U.S. Department of justice. Both are lecturers at the University of Chicago Law School. Fulltext A12/02-10
Nightmares of Nuclear Terrorism
Mowatt-Larssen, Rolf
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 2010, v66, #2, pp37-45
"The author outlines the nuclear terrorism scenarios that keep him up at night—and suggests how best to prevent them."
Rolf Mowatt-Larssen is a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Fulltext A13/02-10
Nuclear Terrorism Redux:
Conventionalists, Skeptics, and the Margin of Safety
Masse, Todd
Orbis, March 2010, v54, #2, pp302-319
"The casual media observer might well believe that nuclear terrorism is highly likely in the United States and it is a question of “when, not if.” This is the view of the “conventionalists.” But there is a second school, the “skeptics,” that believes the nuclear world is more secure than at any time in history and that the possibility of a nuclear terrorist event is overstated. This article articulates arguments made by these two schools of thought and develops a framework for analyzing the issue. It concludes that while enhanced national and international vigilance against nuclear terrorism is necessary, when viewed through an historical lens, today's margin of nuclear safety may actually be higher than in the past."
Todd M. Masse is a national security analyst with the Johns Hopkins University. Order article A14/02-10
American Jihad
Hoffmann, Bruce
National Interest, May/June 2010, #107, online edition
"A top terrorism expert takes on the administration's failure in the war on terror. The White House is obsessed with body counts, declaring victory when all evidence points to the contrary. Al-Qaeda has accomplished the unthinkable. We risk another 9/11."
Bruce Hoffman, a contributing editor to The National Interest, is a professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and a senior fellow at the U.S. Military Academy’s Combating Terrorism Center. Fulltext A15/02-10
Is Afghanistan the Right War?
Pillar, Paul; Nagl, John
The National Interest, March/April 2010, #106, pp33-43
"With thirty thousand new boots on the ground, Kabul is set to become the primary focus of Obama’s strategic agenda. But is this the right choice? Pillar, former national intelligence officer for the Near East and South Asia, argues that a just intervention has devolved into a worthless quagmire, while Iraq War veteran Nagl believes al-Qaeda must be vanquished in the borderlands of AfPak."
Paul R. Pillar is director of graduate studies at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program and a former national intelligence officer for the Near East and South Asia. John Nagl is the president of the Center for a New American Security and a veteran of operations Desert Storm and Iraqi Freedom. Fulltext A16/02-10
Continuity and Change: Reshaping the Fight against Terrorism
Levitt, Matthew; Jacobson, Michael (eds.)
Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Policy Focus #103, April 2010, online edition, 106p (PDF)
"At the outset of the nuclear summit, President Obama warned that nuclear terrorism is "one of the greatest threats to global security," observing that terrorist groups like al-Qaeda would "surely use" a nuclear device if they were able to obtain one. He further argued that a "new mindset" is required to successfully meet this dangerous challenge. How has the Obama administration's response to the resilient terrorism threat expanded on or deviated from Bush-era strategy? To help answer this important question, the Washington Institute's Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence has compiled and analyzed a set of lectures by senior counterterrorism officials delivered at the Institute since President Obama took office."
Matthew Levitt is director of the Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute. Michael Jacobson is a senior fellow, Stein Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at the same institute.Fulltext A17/02-10
The Madrid Bombings and Global Jihadism
Reinares, Fernando
Survival, April–May 2010,v52, #2, pp83–104
"Since the attacks of 11 September 2001 on New York and Washington DC there
has been an ongoing controversy about whether the real threat of global
terrorism is posed by al-Qaeda, its territorial extensions and affiliated
organisations, or by decentralised groups inspired by, but unconnected to, such
entities. The 11 March 2004 Madrid train bombings are often held up as the
archetype of an independent local cell at work, and the perpetrators depicted as
self-recruited, leaderless terrorists. Six years after the blasts, however, new
evidence connecting some of the most notorious members of the Madrid bombing
network with al-Qaeda’s senior leadership, along with features of the terrorist
network itself and distinctive elements of the likely strategy behind the
blasts, suggest that these assumptions are misleading. Judicial documentation
now fully accessible at Spain’s National Court and other relevant primary or
secondary sources can help us better understand what the attacks can tell us
about al-Qaeda and a global terrorism in transition, as well as about the
changing nature of the threat to open societies."
Fernando Reinares is professor of Political Science and Security Studies at Universidad Rey Juan Carlos in Madrid, and co-director of the Program on Global Security and senior analyst on International Terrorism at Real Instituto Elcano. Order article A18/02-10
Countries/Regions:
Afghanistan's Rocky Path to Peace
Thier, J. Alexander
Current History, April 2010, v109, #726, pp131-137
"For the first time since 2001, when the US-led intervention in Afghanistan began, a serious prospect exists for political dialogue among the various combatants, aimed at the cessation of armed conflict. Eight and a half years after the invasion, amid rising insecurity across Afghanistan and with a continuously expanding international troop presence in the country, the prospect of a negotiated settlement with some or all elements of the insurgency is enticing. Two of the enterprises that generate the most profit are transport - essential for supplying international forces - and private security, in the form of companies that guard convoys, bases, and reconstruction projects."
J. Alexander Thier is director for Afghanistan and Pakistan at the US Institute of Peace and chair of the Institute's Afghanistan and Pakistan Working Groups. Order article A19/02-10
A Plan to Stabilize Afghanistan
Miakhel, Shahmahmood
Centre for International Governance Innovation, The Afghanistan Papers #4, May 2010, 14p (PDF)
"Afghanistan’s problems are well known: rampant insecurity, endemic corruption, deep-seated poverty and weak governance. Unfortunately most of the strategies advanced to address these issues have lacked clear, effective and culturally-adapted implementation frameworks, making them more like wish lists than concrete roadmaps. Based on wide experience and engagement in Afghanistan’s state-building project since 2001 – in the United Nations, Afghan government, and civil society – the author provides a broad outline for a new strategy to stabilize Afghanistan. At the core of this new strategy is a focus on priority areas, or centres of gravity, and an emphasis on local-level participation in program design and implementation. While the window of opportunity to stabilize and rebuild Afghanistan is closing, there are straight forward steps that can be taken to turn the tide of Afghanistan’s current crisis."
Shahmahmood Miakhel is the chief of party in Afghanistan for the US Institute of Peace (USIP). Prior to that he was a Governance advisor for the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), and, from 2003-2005, a deputy minister of the Interior in the Government of Afghanistan. Fulltext A20/02-10
From the Sun King to Karzai
Berman, Sheri
Foreign Affairs, March/April 2010, v89, #2, pp2-9
"In December 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama announced the fruits of his administration's lengthy review of Afghanistan policy: temporary troop reinforcements and a new military strategy designed to reverse recent gains by the Taliban, efforts to increase the quality of Afghan governance, and a stronger partnership with Pakistan. The troop increases and the proposed withdrawal starting date of July 2011 dominated the headlines, but in the long run the effects of what Obama called a "civilian surge" will be even more important." In this article the author contends that the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama must focus on state-building in Afghanistan in its policies on the Afghan War.
Sheri Berman is associate professor of Political Science at Barnard College, Columbia University. Fulltext A21/02-10
Reflections on U.S. Policy in Africa 2001-2009
Frazer, Jendayi E.
Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Winter 2010, v34, #1, pp95-107
"In this retrospective of U.S.-African relations during the Bush Administration, Frazer notes that more wars were ended, more successful elections were held, more sustained growth was achieved, and more lives were saved from pandemic diseases than during any previous U.S. presidency. She points to a combination of greater engagement by the United States and a commitment to supporting uniquely African ideas solutions as having helped produce these remarkable outcomes."
Jendayi E. Frazer was the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs from 2005 to 2009. Fulltext A22/02-10
Africa's forever Wars
Gettleman, Jeffrey
Foreign Policy, March/April 2010, #178, pp73-36
"There is a very simple reason why some of Africa's bloodiest, most brutal wars never seem to end: They are not really wars. Not in the traditional sense, at least. The combatants don't have much of an ideology; they don't have clear goals. They couldn't care less about taking over capitals or major cities· - in fact, they prefer the deep bush, where it is far easier to commit crimes. Today's rebels seem especially uninterested in winning converts, content instead to steal other people's children, stick Kalashnikovs or axes in their hands, and make them do the killing. Look closely at some of the continent's most intractable conflicts, from the rebelladen creeks of the Niger Delta to the inferno in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and this is what you will find."
Jeffrey Gettleman is East Africa bureau chief for the New York Times. Fulltext A23/02-10
US-China Relations: The Honeymoon Ends
Glaser, Bonnie; Szerlip, David
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Comparative Connections, April 2010, 14p (PDF)
"After a relatively smooth period in US-China relations through the first year of the Obama administration, the “honeymoon” ended in the first quarter of 2010. The new year brought new frictions and returned to the spotlight many problem areas."
Bonnie Glaser is a fellow at CSIS/Pacific Forum. David Szerlip is a graduate researcher for the Freeman Chair in China, George Washington University. Fulltext A24/02-10
US-China Relations: Is the Future Confrontation Looming
Flamini Roland
CQ Researcher, May 7, 2010, v20, #18, pp409-432
Disputes that have bedeviled relations between the United States and China for decades flared up again following President Obama's decision to sell weapons to Taiwan and receive Tibet's revered Dalai Lama. From the U.S. perspective, China's refusal to raise the value of its currency is undermining America's — and Europe's — economic recovery. Beijing also rebuffed Obama's proposal of “a partnership on the big global issue of our time".
Roland Flamini is a Washington-based correspondent who writes on foreign-affairs for CQ Weekly, The New Republic and other publications. Order article A25/02-10
China’s Perspective on a Nuclear-Free World
Zhang, Hui
Washington Quarterly, April 2010, v33, #2, pp139-155
"China continues to modernize its nuclear force in order to maintain, and only to maintain, a reliable second-strike retaliatory capability. Its actions are driven mainly by U.S. advances in precision-strike weaponry and missile defenses. China’s nuclear modernization has aimed more at improving quality than quantity. The current effort focuses mainly on enhancing the survivability of its strategic nuclear force through greater mobility, including deploying solid-fuel and road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles and a new generation of ballistic missile submarines."
Hui Zhang is leading a research initiative on China’s nuclear policies for Harvard University’s Project on Managing the Atom in the Kennedy School of Government. Fulltext A26/02-10
After Iran Gets the Bomb
Lindsay, James M.; Takeyh, Ray
Foreign Affairs, March/April 2010, v89, #2, pp33-49
"The Islamic Republic of Iran is determined to become the world's tenth nuclear power. It is defying its international obligations and resisting concerted diplomatic pressure to stop it from enriching uranium." This essay examines the risks associated with Iran becoming a nuclear power and suggests that the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama must exert diplomatic pressure on the country to ensure political stability. The author also remarks on the influence of nationalism and anti-Americanism on Iranian foreign relations.
James M. Lindsay is a senior vice president, director of studies, and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair at the Council on Foreign Relations. Ray Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Fulltext A27/02-10
Iran Sanctions
Katzman, Kenneth
Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report for Congress, April 9, 2010, online edition, 34p (PDF)
"Numerous laws and regulations have been adopted or issued to try to curb Iran’s support for militant groups and slow its weapons of mass destruction programs. The sanctions are intended to reduce the revenue available to Iran’s government and to generate domestic pressure within Iran to adopt policies more acceptable to the international community. The wide range of U.S. sanctions restrict U.S. trade with and investment in Iran, prohibit U.S. foreign aid to Iran, and require the United States to vote against international lending to Iran."
Kenneth Katzman is a specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs at CRS.Fulltext A28/02-10
Nuclear Politics in Iran
Yaphe, Judith S. (ed.)
Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, May 10, 2010, online edition, 66p (PDF)
"This paper focuses on the nuclearization of Iranian politics, society, and security. Three prominent scholars examine the emergence of an Iranian nuclear political strategy and its role in shaping domestic political discourse and international security policy." Farideh Farhi examines Iran’s nuclear policy and the rhetorical instruments used in the shaping of public opinion between 2002 and 2007. Bahman Baktiari explores how Iran’s leaders use Western opposition to the country’s nuclear program to validate their quest for international legitimacy and to generate domestic national unity. Anoushiravan Ehteshami analyzes the troubled presidential election of June 2009 and finds that while we may not be sure of the makeup of a “new” Iran, we can be confident that the relationship between state and society and between the forces that make up the Iranian power elite will never again be the same."
Judith Yaphe is distinguished research fellow in the Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, Ft. McNair (Washington), DC. She specializes in Iraq, Iran, and Persian Gulf history, political and security issues. Fulltext A29/02-10
The Kurdish Issue in Iraq: A View from Baghdad at the Close of the Maliki Premiership
Visser, Reidar
Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Winter 2010, v34, #1, pp77-93
As violence in Iraq has subsided since 2007, the "Kurdish issue" has reemerged as one of the greatest threats to future stability in Iraq. In thsi article Reidar Visser traces the history of Kurdish claims for autonomy and Iraq federalism.
Reidar Visser is a research fellow at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Fulltext A30/02-10
Imagining Iraq, Defining Its Future
Ryan, Missy
World Policy Journal, Spring 2010, v27, #1, pp65–73
"Today, the legacy of the American adventure in Iraq is slowly coming into focus. As U.S. soldiers prepare to withdraw after a seven-year occupation, the new Iraqi state takes unsteady steps toward an uncertain future. At the heart of that assessment, which will shape America’s standing across the Middle East for years to come, is the nature and performance of the nation the United States leaves behind—its ability to contain a still-tenacious insurgency, the success of its elections, the brand of government it chooses, the role it allots to women and minorities. Even after parliamentary polls in March, when voters defied insurgent attacks to cast ballots, the dangers are many. Iraq has not yet settled major questions about the balance of power between central and regional authorities, how a newly empowered majority will treat minorities, and how to achieve national reconciliation. Still, in some respects, Iraq may present a more favorable portrait than anyone could have expected in 2006 and 2007."
Missy Ryan is a journalist who has been reporting from Iraq since August 2008. Fulltext A31/02-10
Middle East: Armistice Now
Yaari, Ehud
Foreign Affairs, March/April 2010, v89, #2, pp50-63
"More than 16 years after the euphoria of the Oslo accords, the Israelis and the Palestinians have still not reached a final-status peace agreement. Indeed, the last decade has been dominated by setbacks -- the second intifada, which started in September 2000; Hamas' victory in the January 2006 Palestinian legislative elections; and then its military takeover of the Gaza Strip in June 2007 -- all of which have aggravated the conflict. Since an extended impasse is so dangerous, the best option for both the Israelis and the Palestinians is to seek a less ambitious agreement that transforms the situation on the ground and creates momentum for further negotiations by establishing a Palestinian state within armistice boundaries. Many Palestinians now feel that by denying Israel an "end of conflict, end of claims" deal, they are increasing their chances of gaining a state for which they would not be required to make political concessions."
Ehud Yaari is Lafer international fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and Middle East Commentator for Channel 2 news in Israel. Fulltext A32/02-10
The False Religion of Mideast Peace
Miller, Aaron David
Foreign Policy, April 2010, online edition, 10p
"And why [Aaron David Miller] is no longer a believer. [...] Like all religions, the peace process has developed a dogmatic creed, with immutable first principles. Over the last two decades, I wrote them hundreds of times to my bosses in the upper echelons of the State Department and the White House; they were a catechism we all could recite by heart. First, pursuit of a comprehensive peace was a core, if not the core, U.S. interest in the region, and achieving it offered the only sure way to protect U.S. interests; second, peace could be achieved, but only through a serious negotiating process based on trading land for peace; and third, only America could help the Arabs and Israelis bring that peace to fruition." And why Aaron David Miller is no longer a believer."
Aaron David Miller is a Middle East analyst, author, and negotiator. He is on the U.S. Advisory Council of Israel Policy Forum, is Public Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center, and has been an advisor to six Secretaries of State. Fulltext A33/02-10
Israel and America, Unsettled:
- Behind the Settlements
Kurtzer, Daniel
American Interest, March-April 2010, online edition
"West Bank settlements hollow out respect for the law in the State of Israel, argues a former U.S. Ambassador."
- Are the Settlements Illegal?
Rostow, Nicholas
American Interest, March-April 2010, online edition
"Answering that question is a pitfall the Obama Administration has been wise to avoid."
Nicholas Rostow is university counsel and vice chancellor for legal affairs of the State University of New York.
- Allies Divided
Schwartz, Benjamin E.
American Interest, March-April 2010, online edition
"Israel and America have long taken opposite approaches to managing Palestinians and other Arabs. It’s time we recognized the divide." Benjamin E. Schwartz is a presidential management fellow who has worked on Middle East issues in various parts of the U.S. government. Fulltext articles A34/02-10
Global Zero: An Israeli Vision of Realistic Idealism
Levite, Ariel E.
Washington Quarterly, April 2010, v33, #2, pp157-168
"Trying to portray the Israeli outlook on a nuclear-free world presents a formidable challenge. The issue is not merely the inability to access the inner thoughts of the government, considering that no official statements on the issue are available. More fundamentally, the challenge is to validly portray a national view on an issue that has not really captured the attention of the Israeli government, let alone yielded a coherent policy formulation on it. It is, however, feasible to reflect on some factors that may explain why the renewed international interest in a nuclear-weapons-free world has thus far failed to register in Israel."
Ariel E. Levite is a nonresident senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Fulltext A35/02-10
Pakistan: How a Botched US Alliance Fed Pakistan's Crisis
Cohen, Stephen
Current History, April 2010, v109, #726, pp138-143
Pakistan is undergoing a prolonged crisis. Its social and political order has been in disarray for at least 30 years, a mess compounded by strained relations with neighbors, and even with allies. This much is clear. Perhaps less well understood, however, is that much of Pakistan’s current crisis stems from its history of alliances, during and since the cold war, with the West and particularly with the United States.
Stephen P. Cohen, an author and former professor, conducts research on
proliferation and the militaries of India and Pakistan. Order article A36/02-10
Parsing Pyongyang's Strategy
Roy, Denny
Survival, February–March 2010, v52, #1, pp111–136
North Korean behavior that appears intended to raise tensions with Pyongyang's
adversaries is not only vexing but puzzling. The North Koreans periodically
throw up obstacles to the economic cooperation their country desperately needs,
including harassment of the joint North-South industrial zone in Kaesong. Here,
Roy contends that Pyongyang often speaks as if it welcomes a fight with the US
and South Korea, its strongest potential adversaries. Accordingly, with its
second nuclear test in May 2009, Pyongyang clearly angered even its important
partner China, a major supplier of such basic needs as food and energy.
Denny Roy is currently a senior research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Center for
Security Studies (APCSS) in Honolulu, Hawaii, USA. Order article A37/02-10
Russian Military Perestroika
Baev, Pavel K.
Center on the United States & Europe, US – Europe Analysis Series no.45, April 29, 2010, online edition, 4p
"Is a massive economic crisis a good time to launch a thorough military reform? Given the economic uncertainties, most experts would recommend delaying the overhaul, even if it is long-overdue. Russia, however, is not known for adhering to conventional wisdom. As a consequence, Russia is now in the middle of a profound, if poorly conceptualized and under-financed, transformation of its Armed Forces. The official evaluation of the provisional results is as upbeat as Enron’s annual report for the year 2000; the immediate prospects for success look as uncertain as California’s solvency."
Dr. Pavel K. Baev is a research professor at the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo. Fulltext A38/02-10
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