Posted August 27, 2009
Foreign Policy| Diplomacy | Arms Control | Defense | Human Rights | Intelligence | Terrorism | United Nations
Countries/Regions: Afghanistan | Africa | Iran | Iraq | Latin America | Middle East | North Korea | Pakistan | Russia
The Default Power
: The False Prophecy of America's Decline
Joffe, Josef
Foreign Affairs, September/October 2009, v88, #5, pp2-20
"Every ten years, it is decline time in the United States. In the late 1950s, it was the Sputnik shock, followed by the "missile gap" trumpeted by John F. Kennedy in the 1960 presidential campaign. A decade later, Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger sounded the dirge over bipolarity, predicting a world of five, rather than two, global powers. At the end of the 1970s, Jimmy Carter's "malaise" speech invoked "a crisis of confidence" that struck "at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will." Since the United States first became a global superpower, it has been
fashionable to speak of its decline. But in today's world, the United States'
economic and military strength, along with the attractiveness of its ideals,
will ensure its power for a long time to come.
Josef Joffe is Co-Editor of Die Zeit, a Senior Fellow at Stanford's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and Marc and Anita Abramowitz Fellow in International Relations at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. Fulltext A49/04-09
After the "War on Terror"
Miles, Jack
Commonweal, July 17, 2009, v136, #13, pp12-15
"This article discusses the significance of the disappearance of the war on terror from the diplomatic lexicon of the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama. The author also notes that the awareness in U.S. diplomacy that international relations are complicated by intercultural relations and that the U.S. government ignores such realities at its own risk and talks about Obama's speech delivered to the Muslim world in Cairo, Egypt, which centers on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict."
Jack Miles is Distinguished Professor of English and Religious Studies at the University of California, Irvine, and Senior Fellow for Religion and International Affairs for with the Pacific Council on International Policy. Fulltext A1/04-09
Ideas Matter: Restoring the Content of Public Diplomacy
Reilly, Robert R.
The Heritage Foundation, July 27, 2009, Special Report #64, 31p
"It is not obvious to much of the world that the United States has the moral high
ground against the terrorists. If we truly believe in the principles upon which
the United States was founded, we owe the world an explanation of why it should
choose those ideas over the vision of the terrorists."
Robert R. Reilly was the 25th director of the Voice of America and a senior adviser to the Iraqi Ministry of Information during Operation Iraqi Freedom. He is currently a senior fellow with the American Foreign Policy Council. Fulltext A2/04-09
Understanding the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy Debate
Chyba, Christopher; Crouch, J. D.
Washington Quarterly,
Summer 2009, v32, #3, pp21-36
"This essay attempts to identify eight key divergent views on U.S. nuclear
weapons policy, posture, and programs, and explain the most important areas of
disagreement. What ideas are at the root of these differences? And where could
further work clarify or even help to resolve some of these differences?"
Christopher F. Chyba is professor of astrophysics and international affairs at Princeton University. J. D. Crouch is executive vice president at Qinetiq North America and was deputy national security advisor in the George W. Bush administration. Order Article A3/04-09
Avoiding a Nuclear Crowd: How to Resist the Weapon’s Spread
Sokolski, Henry
Policy Review, June/July 2009, #155, pp15-32
"If current trends continue, in a decade or less, the United Kingdom could find its nuclear forces eclipsed not only by those of Pakistan, but of Israel and India as well. Shortly thereafter, France could share the same fate. China, which has already amassed enough separated plutonium and highly enriched uranium to easily triple its current stockpile of roughly 300 deployed nuclear warheads, also is likely to increase its deployed numbers, quietly, during the coming years. Meanwhile, over 25 states have announced their desire to build a large nuclear reactor — a key aspect of most previous nuclear weapons programs — before 2030."
Henry Sokolski is executive director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education
Center. Fulltext A4/04-09
Spreading Temptation: Proliferation and Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreements
Fuhrmann, Matthew
International Security, Summer 2009, v34, #1, pp7-41
"According to the author “proliferation-proof” nuclear assistance does not exist. Transfer of nuclear technology and know-how for peaceful purposes invariably leads to the development of weapons programs, and countries that have received such assistance are more likely to produce nuclear weapons, especially when facing security threats. A study of two thousand civilian nuclear cooperation agreements over the past half-century bears this out. Fuhrmann writes that the link between civilian nuclear cooperation and proliferation is surprisingly broad, and casts doubt on convention wisdom. He argues that major nuclear suppliers such as the U.S. should reconsider their willingness to assist other countries in peaceful nuclear cooperation."
Matthew Fuhrmann is assistant professor of political science at the University of South Carolina. Fulltext A5/04-09
Canaries in the Cooling Tower
Duelfer, Charles A.
National Interest, July/August 2009, #102, pp52-62
"Weapons inspections frequently derided as the most feckless tool in our nonproliferation arsenal. The head of the Iraq Survey Group runs us through his surreal experience in the country, and shows that the lessons of Iraq can apply to Iran and North Korea. Pyongyang and Tehran are well on their way to functioning nuclear capabilities. Inspectors will be our only way out."
Charles A. Duelfer served as deputy executive chairman of the UN Special
Commission on Iraq from 1993 to 2000. He headed the Iraq Survey Group in 2004
and produced the final report on Iraq’s WMD, the so-called Duelfer Report. Fulltext A6/04-09
The Fearful Symmetry and the New Soldier
Sarkar, Rumu
Georgetown of International Affairs, Summer/Fall 2009, v10, #2, pp67-73
"The Threat of Islamist terrorism has created a new global balance of power. The political dimensions of asymmetric warfare posed by Islamist-based terrorism create a need for adoption of new strategies. The author argues for a strategy that involves the creation of a "New soldier" a soldier-diplomat who is flexible, highly educated and capable of demonstrating compassion."
Rumu Sarkar is an adjunct professor of law at Georgetown University and the senior legal advisor to CALIBRE systems, a defense consulting firm. Order Article A7/04-09
How Will We Fight
Hammes, T.X.
Orbis, Summer 2009, v53, #3, pp365-383
"In considering the question “How will we fight?,” this article begins by examining the threats we face from conventional, insurgent, and hybrid enemies as well as terrorists and super-empowered individuals. It then outlines how America can fight effectively against each threat—as well as identifying the deficiencies in our current force structure that will hinder that response. The analysis argues that America needs a well-balanced, medium-weight joint force. It then provides recommendations for each of the services, as well as special operations forces, to achieve that goal. It concludes by describing what is needed to insure our force is capable of the rapid innovation in wartime required of successful nations."
Colonel Thomas X. Hammes is a retired U.S. Marine officer and a specialist in counter-insurgency warfare. Order article A8/04-09
Toward a Balanced and Sustainable Defense
Hoffman, F.G.
Orbis, Summer 2009, v53 #3, pp385-404
"Secretary of Defense Robert Gates defines “balance” as the critical principle of his defense strategy. This emphasizes achieving a balance between current conflicts and dangerous and more conventional wars in the future. [...] Balance is not enough, our defense investments must be sustainable. Defense spending today, in inflation adjusted dollars, is at an all time high and exceeds Cold War levels. This has helped sustain the world's finest military, but the funding for this buildup and two wars has been borrowed from foreign sources. The accumulated debt and subsequent interest payments have reduced our ability to weather the current economic crisis and will drag on our economic recovery for years to come. The Obama administration must craft a grand strategy to get us out of the red—strategically and fiscally. This essay offers a set of strategy, structure and investment shifts to that end."
F. G. Hoffman is historian at the Studies and Analysis Division, Marine Corps Development Command, U.S. Marine Corps. Order article A9/04-09
Who Will Fight for Us
O'Hanlon, Michael E.
Orbis, Summer 2009, v53, #3, pp405-418
"Our military is in reasonably good shape today, but it is working very hard and the level of individual sacrifice among soldiers and Marines, in particular, is very high. Were it not for the distinct likelihood of a major reduction in combined deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan by 2010, we would need urgent responses to the situation now. And if those missions go less well, or less quickly, than now hoped—or if, heaven forbid, another war breaks out in the meantime—additional measures will be required."
Michael Edward O'Hanlon is a senior fellow at The Brookings Institution, specializing in defense and foreign policy issues. Order article A10/04-09
Obama's Empire
Lutz, Catherine
New Statesman, August 3, 2009, v138, #4960, pp22-27
"The 44th president of the United States was elected amid hopes that he would roll back his country’s global dominance. Today, he is commander-in-chief of an unprecedented network of military bases that is still expanding.
In December 2008, shortly before being sworn in as the 44th president of the United States, Barack Obama pledged his belief that, "to ensure prosperity here at home and peace abroad", it was vital to maintain "the strongest military on the planet". Unveiling his national security team, including George Bush's defence secretary, Robert Gates, he said: "We also agree the strength of our military has to be combined with the wisdom and force of diplomacy, and that we are going to be committed to rebuilding and restrengthening alliances around the world to advance American interests and American security."
Catherine Lutz is a professor at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University. Fulltext A11/04-09
Blueprint for Defense Transformation
Korb, Lawrence; Conley, Laura
The American Interest, September/October 2009, v5, #1, pp64-72
"This past March Secretary of Defense Robert Gates announced that the spigot of increasingly large defense budgets had been turned off—as he proposed a FY2010 baseline budget of “only” $534 billion. The momentousness of that announcement, however, did not seem to match the number. While it’s true that the Joint Chiefs prepared a budget for the incoming Obama Administration calling for $584 billion in FY2010—$50 billion more than the Gates proposal and some $60 billion more than the Bush Administration had projected for that year—last year’s budget had been $518 billion, $16 billion less than the proposed FY2010 baseline."
Lawrence Korb, a former Assistant Secretary of Defense in the Reagan Administration, is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and a senior adviser to the Center for Defense Information. Laura Conley is a special assistant at the Center for American Progress. Order article A12/04-09
The Pentagon's Wasting Assets
Krepinevich, Jr., Andrew F.
Foreign Affairs, July/August 2009, v88, #4, pp18-33
"The military foundations of the United States' global dominance are eroding. For the past several decades, an overwhelming advantage in technology and resources has given the U.S. military an unmatched ability to project power worldwide. This has allowed it to guarantee U.S. access to the global commons, assure the safety of the homeland, and underwrite security commitments around the globe. U.S. grand strategy assumes that such advantages will continue indefinitely. In fact, they are already starting to disappear."
Andrew F. Krepinecich Jr. is President of the Center for Strategic and
Budgetary Assessments. Fulltext A13/04-09
Nothing Sacred: What We Talk about When We Talk about Torture
Whitt, Clayton
The Humanist, July/August 2009, v69, #4, pp10-15
The article discusses torture as practiced on detainees in U.S. custody in the 21st century. A survey published in April 2009 by the Pew Forum showed that 49 percent of the U.S. public sees torture as sometimes justifiable. The number goes up for both white evangelical Protestants and for Republicans, and down for Democrats. It states that some people find it difficult to separate politics from theology and often move the argument to questions of what constitutes torture to avoid the issue.
Clayton Whitt is on the development staff of the American Humanist Association. Fulltext A14/04-09
Who's Being Protected under the Searing Bright Light?
Swanson, David
The Humanist, July/August 2009, v69, #4, pp16-18
This article discusses the position of U.S. President Barack Obama regarding acts of torture committed by members of the administration of former U.S. President George W. Bush. "Prosecuting torture is not a choice, but a requirement. Any act complicit in
torture, such as drafting a memo purporting to make it legal, or ordering it
done from a distance, or indeed committing the torture directly must be
prosecuted."
David Swanson is the author of the upcoming book Daybreak: Undoing the Imperial Presidency and Forming a More Perfect Union. Fulltext A15/04-09
The CIA Briefing Game
Harris, Shane
National Journal, June 6, 2009, v41, #24, p20
"The agency, throughout its 60-plus-year history, has kept Congress in the dark about some of its most sensitive and controversial operations, all the while giving lawmakers enough information so that they have a hard time claiming later they were clueless about the agency's actions."
Shane Harris, a staff correspondent for National Journal, writes on intelligence and homeland security. Fulltext A16/04-09
Al-Qaeda's Palestinian Problem
Mendelsohn, Barak
Survival, Summer 2009, v51, #4, pp71-86
"While its ability to operate in the heart of the Middle East is in decline,
al-Qaeda has issued increasing numbers of statements dedicated to the
Palestinian arena. The increased attention is not coincidental. In distress,
al-Qaeda is seeking to use the Palestinian question to improve its image by
presenting itself as the Palestinians' true defender. However, Hamas's control
over the Gaza Strip presents a serious dilemma for al-Qaeda. It is finding that
there is no easy way to back its promises with action and that confronting Hamas
may actually have undesirable consequences."
Barak Mendelsohn is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Haverford College.
Order article A17/04-09
Why Has the United States Not Been Attacked Again?
Boyd, Dallas; Dunn, Lewis; Scouras, James
Washington Quarterly, Summer 2009, v32, #3, pp3-19
"Asked shortly before leaving office to identify his ‘‘greatest accomplishment’’
as president, George W. Bush expressed his pride in ‘‘keeping America safe.’’
Political commentator Peggy Noonan observed that the judgment ‘‘newly
re-emerging as the final argument’’ for Bush’s presidency is that he succeeded
in preventing another attack on the scale of September 11, 2001. Noonan
suggested, however, that ‘‘It is unknown, and perhaps can’t be known, whether
this was fully due to the government’s efforts, or the luck of the draw, or a
combination of luck and effort.’’ Why has the U.S. homeland not been successfully attacked since September 11? The
authors assess four popular explanations, drawing implications and strategic
recommendations from the conclusions."
Dallas Boyd is a national security analyst at Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), Lewis Dunn is a senior vice president of SAIC, and James Scouras is a senior staff member at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. This article draws on a more comprehensive analysis conducted for the Advanced Systems
and Concepts Office of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA). Order Article A18/04-09
A Counterterrorism Strategy for the Obama Administration
Hoffman, Bruce
Terrorism and Political Violence, July 2009, pp359-377
"Al-Qaeda is most dangerous when it has a safe haven from which to plant and plot attacks. It has acquired such a haven in Pakistan’s Federal Administered Tribal Areas and its North-West Frontier Province and nearby areas, concludes terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman at Georgetown University. During 2008 al-Qaeda was able to re-group and re-organize in these lawless regions along the Afghan-Pakistan border, once again having a sanctuary in which it can operate, while marshalling its forces to continue its struggle with the U.S. The highest priority for the new administration and U.S. allies is to refocus on Afghanistan and Pakistan, Hoffman says; part of any counterterrorism strategy must include an understanding that al-Qaeda and its local affiliates cannot be defeated by military means alone. At its basic level, a new strategy requires two major requirements -– a military capability to systematically destroy and weaken enemy capabilities, and the means to break the cycle of terrorist recruitment and effectively counter al-Qaeda’s information operations."
Bruce Hoffman is a Professor at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service and a Senior Fellow at the U.S. Military Academy's Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. Order article
A19/04-09
The Geography of U.S. Terrorist Incidents, 1970-2004
Webb, Jennifer; Cutter, Susan
Survival, Summer 2009, v21, #3, pp428-449
"This paper describes the spatio-temporal trends in terrorist incidents in the United States, from 1970 through 2004. Utilizing the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and ancillary data, we examine both the frequency of incidents and their characteristics: location, target type, attack type, weapon type, and perpetrator group. While the frequency of terrorist incidents has declined since the 1970s, there still is significant activity nationwide. Instead of urban-rural or West Coast-East Coast divisions, the pattern is a more complex mosaic based on group identity, target, and weapon type. We conclude that there is an explicit geography of terrorism, one that is quite decentralized and highly localized."
Jennifer J. Webb is a Ph.D. candidate in Geography at the
University of South Carolina. Susan L. Cutter is Director of the Hazards & Vulnerability Research Institute and a member of the START Center's Executive Committee. Order article A20/04-09
Toward a Third Generation of International Institutions: Obama's UN Policy
Weiss, Thomas
Washington Quarterly, Summer 2009, v32, #3, pp141-162
"By nominating his confidante, Susan E. Rice, as ambassador to the
United Nations and restoring the post’s cabinet status, President Barack Obama enunciated his 'belief that the UN is an indispensable - imperfect - forum.' He not only announced that the United States has rejoined the world and is ready to reengage with all member states, but also that multilateralism in general and the UN in particular would be essential to U.S. foreign policy during his administration by stating the simple fact that ‘‘the global challenges we face demand global institutions that work.'"
Thomas G. Weiss is presidential professor of political science at The City
University of New York’s Graduate Center and director of the Ralph Bunche
Institute for International Studies, where he is codirector of the United
Nations Intellectual History Project. Order Article A21/04-09
A New Course in the World, a New Approach at the U.N
Rice, Susan
Foreign Policy, August 13, 2009, online edition
"Today, as we steer a new course at the United Nations, our guiding principles are clear: We value the U.N. as a vehicle for advancing U.S. policies and universal rights. We work for change from within rather than criticizing from the sidelines. We stand firm in defense of America’s interests and values, but we don’t dissent just to be contrary. We listen to states great and small. We build coalitions. We meet our responsibilities. We pay our bills. We push for real reform. And we remember that in an interconnected world, what’s good for others is often good for America as well."
Remarks as delivered by Ambassador Susan E. Rice, U.S. permanent representative to the United Nations, at New York University's Center for Global Affairs and Center on International Cooperation.
Fulltext A22/04-09
Countries/Regions:
Flipping the Taliban
Christia, Fotini; Semple, Michael
Foreign Affairs, July/August 2009, v88, #4, pp34-45
"President Barack Obama's proposed deployment of 21,000 more U.S. troops to Afghanistan is necessary to tip the balance of power against the Taliban. But it will not be enough. Washington and its allies must accompany the move with a political "surge," an effort to persuade large groups of insurgents to give up their fight. This can be done: in Afghanistan, battles are often decided by defections rather than fighting, and for many members of the Taliban, the insurgency is less a matter of ideology than a way of life."
Fotini Christia is Assistant Professor of Political Science at MIT. Michael Semple is a regional specialist focusing on Afghanistan and Pakistan, with extensive experience dialoguing with the Taliban. Fulltext A23/04-09
Afghanistan Dilemma : Is President Obama Pursuing the Right Course?
Billitteri, Thomas J.
CQ Researcher,
August 07, 2009, v9, #28, pp669-692
"Nearly eight years ago, U.S. forces first entered Afghanistan to pursue the al
Qaeda terrorists who plotted the Sept. 11 terror attacks. American troops are
still there today, along with thousands of NATO forces. Under a new strategy
crafted by the Obama administration, military leaders are trying to deny
terrorists a permanent foothold in the impoverished Central Asian country and in
neighboring, nuclear-armed Pakistan, whose western border region has become a
sanctuary for Taliban and al Qaeda forces. The Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict —
“Af-Pak” in diplomatic parlance — poses huge challenges ranging from rampant
corruption within Afghanistan's police forces to a multibillion-dollar opium
economy that funds the insurgency. But those problems pale in comparison with
the ultimate nightmare scenario: Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into the
hands of terrorists, which foreign-policy experts say has become a real
possibility."
Thomas J. Billitteri is a 'CQ Researcher' staff writer. Order Article A24/04-09
Karzai In His Labyrinth
Rubin, Elizabeth
New York Times Magazine, August 9, 2009, pp26-40
Elizabeth Rubin focuses on President Hamid Karzai's re-election campaign rally in Afghanistan. "Sher Muhammad Akhundzada, the five-foot-tall ex-governor of Helmand and probably the country's most famous drug traffickers, was the organizer of the event and master of ceremonies. [...] The presidential campaign has put Karzai's style of politics on trial. There are 41 candidates running in Afghanistan's second-eve presidential elections. Karzai's main competitors are two of his former ministers--Ghani, who was finance minister from 2002 to 2004 and an adviser to the World Bank for 10 years; and Abdullah Abdullah, an ophthalmologist who became a close adviser to the legendary mujahedin commander Ahmed Shah Massoud and served as foreign ministers under Karzai until 2006."
Elizabeth Rubin is a contributing writer for The New York Times magazine. Fulltext A25/04-09
Somalia: Navigating Troubled Waters: Somalia, Piracy, and Maritime Terrorism
Joyner, Christopher
Georgetown Journal of World Affairs, Summer/Fall 2009, v10, #2, pp83-91
"Pirates operating from Somalia have made the waters off the Horn of Africa the most dangerous in the world. In January 2009, the Piracy Reporting Centre in the International Chamber of Commerce's International Maritime Bureau released its annual piracy report, which indicated a stunning upsurge in unlawful maritime seizures over the previous year." This article explains why piracy is occurring off Somalia's coast contextualizes how this piracy is affecting international stability, and offers recommendations for multilateral action to suppress instances of maritime violence off the Horn of Africa.
Christopher Joyner is director of the Institute for International Law and Politics and Professor of Government and Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Order Article A26/04-09
Congo: Rape of the Congo
Hochschild, Adam
New York Review of Books, August 13, 2009, v56, #13, online edition
In this article Adam Hochschild emphasizes four major factors that continuously cause conflict in Congo: long-standing antagonism between certain ethnic groups, the 1994 Rwandan genocide, vast wealth in natural resources, and lastly, a vast population--65 million--in an area as big as the United States east of the Mississippi.
Hochschild writes for The New Yorker, Harper's Magazine, The New York Review of Books, The New York Times Magazine, and The Nation. Fulltext A27/04-09
Congo: Stopping the Resource Wars in Africa
Veit, Peter
World Resource Institute, August 10, 2009, online edition
"The armed groups in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are funded by the region’s abundant natural resources [...]. Two bills are now in Congress, the Congo Conflict Minerals Act and the Extractive Industries Transparency Disclosure Act. These two bills would require companies listed on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to disclose new information in their financial reporting and help ensure that such minerals do not support the conflict."
Peter Veit is Regional Director for Africa in the Institutions and Governance Program. Fulltext A28/04-09
Blood in the Niger Delta
Burdin Asuni, Judith
United States Institute of Peace, August 11, 2009, online edition, 20p (pdf)
"The trade of stolen oil, or “blood oil,” in Nigeria is fueling a long-running insurgency in the resource-rich Niger Delta region that has claimed many lives. Oil “bunkering” – or theft – has fomented the armed conflict in the region, providing militant groups with funds to purchase weapons, and has increased instability in oil prices on world energy markets. The report shows how the business of blood oil poses a threat not only to the Nigerian state and the region, but to the international community as well."
Judith Burdin Asuni is the founder and executive director of Academic Associates PeaceWorks. She is currently a visiting
scholar at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced
International Studies. Fulltext A29/04-09
Containing Iran?: Avoiding a Two-Dimensional Strategy in a Four
Dimensional Region
Kaye, Dalia Dassa; Wehrey, Frederic
Washington Quarterly, July/August 2009, v32, #3, pp37-53
"One of the most significant effects of the Iraq war is Iran’s seemingly
unprecedented influence and freedom of action in regional affairs, presenting new strategic challenges for the United States and its regional allies. Although Middle Eastern governments and the United States are in general agreement about diagnosing Tehran’s activism as the war’s most alarming consequence, they disagree on how to respond. The conventional U.S. view suggests that a new Arab consensus has been prompted to neutralize and counter Tehran’s rising influence across the region in Gaza, the Gulf, Iraq, and Lebanon. Parallels to Cold War containment are clear." The authors’ fieldwork finds the idea that Arab support to contain Iran has been spurred by Tehran’s recent regional gains is dangerously flawed, based on a misreading of local politics and the nuanced ways Arab states are managing, and in some cases exploiting, the challenge from Iran."
Dalia Dassa Kaye is a senior political scientist and associate director of the
Center for Middle East Public Policy at RAND Corporation. Frederic Wehrey is an adjunct senior policy analyst with RAND. Order article A30/04-09
The Making of an Iran Policy
Cohen, Roger
New York Times Magazine, August 2, 2009, pp36-44
"The Obama administration [...] had been deliberately agnostic on the election outcome and had tried to finesse electoral uncertainty by directing its diplomatic overture chiefly at Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader. [...] The administration was geared to bring its engagement policy to fruition after the June 12 election. The two things it had not planned for, however, were a situation of near-insurrection and Khamenei’s shift out of the arbiter’s lofty cover into explicit alignment with Ahmadinejad." Roger Cohen comments on the Obama Administration's struggle with its biggest diplomatic challenge.
Roger Cohen is a columnist for the New York Times and the International Herald Tribune. Fulltext A31/04-09
Iraqi Security Forces after U.S. Troop Withdrawal: An Iraqi Perspective
Abed Al-Jabouri, Najim
Strategic Forum, Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University, August 2009, #245, 6p
"As U.S. Armed Forces draw down in Iraq, there is increasing concern about the possibility of resurgent ethnic and sectarian tensions. Many Iraqis believe that the United States may be making a grave mistake by not fully using its remaining leverage to insulate the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) from the political influence of the incumbent Iraqi sectarian political parties. U.S. efforts to rebuild the ISF have focused on much needed training and equipment, but have neglected the greatest challenge facing the forces’ ability to maintain security upon U.S. withdrawal: an ISF politicized by ethno-sectarian parties. These ties pose the largest obstacle to the ISF in its quest to become genuinely professional and truly national in character."
Najim Abed Al-Jabouri, former mayor of Tel Afar, a predominantly Turkmen City in Northern Iraq, is a Senior fellow at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C. Fulltext A32/04-09
Withdrawing from Iraq: Alternative Schedules, Associated Risks, and Mitigating Strategies
Rand National Defense Research Institute, August 2009, online edition, 204p (PDF)
"Since 2007, security has improved dramatically in Iraq. The U.S. and Iraqi governments — and most Iraqis — want to see both the U.S. presence there reduced and the Iraqi government and security forces assuming a greater role in providing for public security. The challenge is to effect this drawdown while preserving security and stability in the country and in the region. In response to tasking from the U.S. Congress, RAND researchers conducted an independent study to examine drawdown schedules, risks, and mitigating strategies." Fulltext A33/04-09
The Obama Administration and the Americas: A Promising Start
Lowenthal, Abraham F.
Washington Quarterly, July/August 2009, v32, #3, pp119-136
"Because the new administration of President Barack Obama inherited the most demanding agenda, both at home and abroad, that any U.S. government has faced in many decades, few observers expected that it would devote much attention to U.S. relations with Latin America and the Caribbean. None of the countries of the Americas presents an imminent threat to U.S. national security. None is likely to be the source or target of significant international terrorism. With so much else to attend to, the Obama administration might well have relegated Latin America to the distant backburner."
Abraham F. Lowenthal is professor of international relations at the University of Southern California, a nonresident senior fellow of the Brookings Institution, president emeritus of the Pacific Council on International Policy, and the founding director of the Inter-American
Dialogue. Order article A34/04-09
David and Gulliver: Fifty Years of Competing Metaphors in the Cuban-United States Relationship
Brenner, Philip; Castro, Soraya
Diplomacy & Statecraft, June 2009, v20, #2, pp236-257
"The national narratives Cuba and the United States have constructed about their relationship since 1959 reflect the enormous differences in size, power, and wealth of the two countries. Cuban leaders often characterize the relationship with the metaphor of David and Goliath, which conveys the image of a small, valiant defender facing an enormous aggressor. American leaders invoke images of Gulliver and the Lilliputians, in which the giant is benign and honourable. [...] This article reviews the tension between Cuba and the United States since 1959,
which has reinforced the metaphor each country developed to explain the
hostility between them. In turn, the metaphors have framed the way the leaders
view the relationship, and in this way have become an obstacle to improved
relations. Cuban officials tend to discount United States fears about the
aggressive implications of the David and Goliath framework, which also disposes
them to be suspicious about American initiatives. Similarly, in viewing the
relationship through the eyes of a Gulliver, American officials tend to discount
the history of United States aggression against Cuba, and they seem to act on a
belief that only a disingenuous tyrant could doubt the good intentions they have
for the Cuban people."
Professor Brenner is the former director of the U.S. Foreign Policy field at the
School of International Service. He specializes in the U.S. foreign policy
process with an emphasis on Congress, and in U.S. policy toward Latin America. Dr. Soraya M. Castro Mariño is full Researcher and Professor at the Center for the Study of the United States, Havana University, Cuba. Her work focuses on U.S.-Cuban relations and on hemispheric integration within the Americas. Order article A35/04-09
How Iran Could Save the Middle East
Goldberg, Jeffrey
Atlantic Monthly, July/August 2009, v304, #1, pp64-68
"The definitive Middle East cliché is "The enemy of my enemy is my friend." With
Shiite Iran growing stronger, Jews and Sunni Arabs suddenly have a potent basis
for friendship. Could leveraging Sunni fears of rising Shiite power finally
solve the Israeli-Palestinian problem? The case for a Sunni-Jewish alliance."
Jeffrey Goldberg is an Israeli-American journalist. He is an author and a staff writer for The Atlantic. Fulltext A36/04-09
U.S. Middle East Policy: Too Many Challenges and Yet a Single Theme
Rubin, Barry
Middle East Review of International Affairs, June 2009, v13, #2, pp24-39 (pdf)
"The Obama administration faces an enormous number of challenges in the Middle East each of which has its separate roots and requirements. Yet throughout these conflicts runs a single theme: the battle between an Iran-led coalition and other states, along with the overlapping battles of
Islamists versus nationalists, and sometimes of Sunni versus Shi’a. This article is a brief analysis of these issues and the options possessed by the administration in dealing with them."
Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs Center (GLORIA) and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. Fulltext A37/04-09
Israel: Israel's Religious Right and the Question of Settlements
International Crisis Group, Middle East Report Nr. 89, July 20, 2009, 49p (PDF)
"Benjamin Netanyahu is in a bind, according to the report. Israel is facing arguably unprecedented pressure to halt all settlement activity, led by a new and surprisingly determined U.S. administration. But the prime minister also heads a distinctly right-wing coalition and faces intense domestic pressure from settlers and their allies. They occupy key positions in the military, the government and the education and legal sectors, as well as various layers of the bureaucracy." Fulltext A38/04-09
Israel: The 2009 Israeli Election: A Bump in the Road to Peace?
Marcus, Jonathan
Washington Quarterly, Summer 2009, v32,#3, pp55-69
"Israeli voters went to the polls in February 2009 for the fifth time in a
decade. The campaign was overshadowed by the December 2008 Israeli offensive
into the Gaza Strip: air operations beginning just two days after Christmas and
Israeli ground operations following during the early days of the New Year.
Israeli troops pulled out of the Gaza Strip some three weeks later but sporadic
Palestinian rocket fire continued even after the election during the ensuing
weeks of coalition formation. Inevitably an election which might have focused on
the future path toward peace, or perhaps the onset of the economic crisis, was
dominated by traditional concerns about security. The outcome enabled both the
centrist Kadima party leader and outgoing foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, and the
standard bearer of the right, Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu, to claim victory.
Kadima won the most seats in the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, while the
political right as a whole emerged with the best chance of forming the next
governing coalition."
Jonathan Marcus is diplomatic correspondent for the BBC World Service. Order Article A39/04-09
Israelis say "NO" to Obama - What Next?
Marshall, Rachelle
Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, August 2009, v28, #6, pp7-10
"President Barack Obama has signaled that U.S. Middle East policy will no longer
consist of endorsing any and all actions of the Israeli government while at the
same time ignoring the concerns of its neighbors and the suffering of the
Palestinian people. From now on, he has indicated, America's policies in that
part of the world will be aimed at resolving conflicts peacefully rather than
appeasing the Israelis and the pro-Israel lobby." This article focuses on the refusal of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu
to approve the concept of a Palestinian state and a settlement freeze proposed
by U.S. President Barack Obama.
Rachelle Marshall is a free-lance editor living in Stanford, CA. A member of A
Jewish Voice for Peace, she writes frequently on the Middle East. Fulltext A40/04-09
Living with Nuclear North Korea
Ramberg, Bennett
Survival, August/September 2009, v51, #4, pp13-20
IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said in April that while he did not like
to accept any country as a nuclear-weapons state, the international community
‘had to face reality’. White House non-proliferation czar Gary Samore
acknowledged that it was unlikely the current regime would give up its nuclear
weapons. If North Korea’s bomb is here to stay, the international community must
address three serious concerns. The first, the risk that Pyongyang will export
nuclear material to other nations or terrorists, has dominated the public agenda
and galvanised dozens of states to cooperate with Washington’s Proliferation
Security Initiative, an effort to intercept nuclear contraband. The UN Security
Council’s 14 October 2006 sanctions resolution gave the initiative an additional
boost.
Bennett Ramberg, a former U.S. State Department analyst, is a Los Angeles-based proliferation expert, foreign-policy consultant and businessman. Order article A41/04-09
North Korea Profile: Missile Chronology 2008-2009
Nuclear Threat Initiative, July 2009, online edition
"North Korea is the most advanced of the "late missile developers" and since the demise of the Soviet Union has probably become the greatest exporter of complete ballistic missile systems, components, and technology." This site shows the chronology of North Korea’s missile development from 2008 to present.
Fulltext A42/04-09
Is North Korea's Reprocessing Facility Operating?
Zhang, Hui
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July 23, 2009, online edition
"In response to a U.N. resolution punishing its nuclear test on May 25, North Korea defiantly threatened on June 13 to weaponize all of its newly separated plutonium. Pyongyang also declared, "More than one-third of the spent fuel rods has been reprocessed to date." However, recent off-site air samples and satellite imagery suggest that North Korea's reprocessing facility isn't operating, casting doubt on Pyongyang's statements. But is it possible that North Korea's reprocessing facility could be in use without detection?"
A physicist, Zhang is leading a research initiative on China's nuclear policies for Harvard University's Project on Managing the Atom. Fulltext A43/04-09
Unlocking Russian Interests on the Korean Peninsula
Bauer, John W.
Parameters, Summer 2009, v34, #2, pp52-62
"The close relationship that once existed between Moscow and Pyongyang
is a relic of the Cold War. In fact, there is reason to believe that the two neighbors now share little in common. Yet decades ago, the Soviets
exercised tremendous influence over the North Korean regime, anecdotally
evidenced by Kim Il-sung’s fateful request to Josef Stalin asking to invade the South in 1950. Stalin, after much consternation, finally gave his approval. By deferring to Stalin, Kim Il-sung sought continued Soviet
support, which he received for roughly 40 years until the breakup of the Soviet Union. In the early 1990s, however, this partnership changed significantly. Russia’s national interests have conspicuously drifted since then, favoring South Korea over the North. What has caused the shift in Moscow’s attention south from Pyongyang to Seoul, and what are the strategic consequences of this development in light of South Korea’s goal to one day reunify the peninsula?"
Major John Bauer is a strategist for Special Operations Command Korea and has served tours with special operations units in Afghanistan and the Philippines. He is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy, Army Command and General Staff College, and School of Advanced Military Studies. Fulltext A44/04-09
Armageddon is Islamabad
Riedel, Bruce
National Interest, July/August 2009, #102, pp9-18
"The article discusses the possibility of a coup d'etat by Islamic
fundamentalists in Pakistan, and the history of Islamic militancy in the
country. Topics discussed include the government-backed rise of jihadist groups
during the war against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, the likelihood of
Sunni-Shia violence in the event of a militant takeover of Pakistan, the global
effects of a nuclear-armed state controlled by Islamists, and relevant U.S.
foreign policy options."
Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer is a senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. He chaired an interagency review of policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan for the Obama administration that was completed in March 2009. Fulltext A45/04-09
Authoritarianism in Pakistan
Barany, Zoltan
Policy Review, August/September 2009, #156, pp41-53
"Practically from the moment of its creation in 1947, Pakistan has been plagued by ethnic tensions, mismanagement, and corruption. The profound incompetence of its civilian rulers in the first decade of independence created a political vacuum filled by the generals, who have ruled or dominated Pakistan, directly or indirectly, for much of its history. The country’s dismal political record and lackluster socioeconomic development are all the more remarkable when contrasted with the relative success of its gigantic neighbor to the east. To be sure, India has also encountered ethno-religious conflicts, widespread poverty, and many other challenges, but it has remained a functioning democracy with an increasingly promising economic future. Why has Pakistan failed where India succeeded? Why has it become an authoritarian state? Why have its armed forces been able to dominate its political life?"
Zoltan Barany, a national fellow at the Hoover Institution, is the Susan Louis Dyer Peace Fellow for 2007-08
and 2008-09. His primary research interests are military politics and military
alliances around the world. Fulltext A46/04-09
The Russia File
Legvold, Robert
Foreign Affairs, July/August 2009, v88, #4, pp78-93
"Reversing the collapse of U.S.-Russian relations is one of the great tests facing the Obama administration. Among the major powers, Russia is the hard case. And the stakes involved in getting U.S.-Russian relations right are high -- much higher than the leadership of either country has acknowledged or perhaps even realized so far. If the Obama administration can guide the relationship onto a more productive path, as it is trying to do, it will not only open the way for progress on the day's critical issues -- from nuclear security and energy security to climate change and peaceful change in the post-Soviet area -- but also be taking on a truly historic task." As it redesigns U.S. policy toward Russia, the Obama administration needs to set far more ambitious goals than it has so far -- it needs to start a comprehensive strategic dialogue.
Robert Legvold is Marshall D. Shulman Professor Emeritus at Columbia University and Director of the project Rethinking U.S. Policy Toward Russia at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Fulltext A47/04-09
A Realistic Reset with Russia
Goldgeier, James
Policy Review, August /September 2009, #156, pp15-26
"It is rather startling that 20 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the leaders of the two nations believe they need to stress their readiness to overcome Cold War mentalities. But is it really Cold War mentalities that have been the problem? The dashing of expectations that has occurred often in the past two decades should lead us to be somewhat sober about the prospects going forward, despite the Obama administration’s worthy goal of pushing the “reset button” and its early achievements. Looking back through the history of the intervening years can help us understand why we have made such little progress in forging a strong U.S.-Russian relationship since the hopeful days after the collapse of communism."
James Goldgeier is a professor of political science at George Washington
University and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Fulltext A48/04-09
|
